- 學位論文
臺灣民粹主義態度探源：選舉輸家的解釋
Loser's Populism: the Origin of Taiwanese Populist Attitude
摘要
在政治學界大量轉向關於COVID-19政經後果的研究之前，在歐洲興起的極右派民粹主義(Populism)風潮曾經被視為近年最大的「自由民主危機」。這股潮流不僅從舊世界吹向新世界，使川普(Donald Trump)爆冷當選美國總統，更在亞洲延燒：印度莫迪(Narendra Modi)領導的BJP 擊敗甘地家族、菲律賓出現政治「局外人」杜特蒂(Rodrigo R. Duterte)出任總統，臺灣也在2017年吹起「韓流」。 從川普到韓國瑜，民粹主義的特性一直是製造出「非典型」的選舉結果， 這自然激起了政治學界的研究興趣。選民為何會出現民粹主義態度、悖離既有政治分歧(Political Cleavage)並轉而支持這些非典型候選人，自是此研究旨趣中最重要的研究問題之一。 本研究以臺灣民主鞏固以來兩波最大的民粹主義現象為研究對象，結合當代比較民粹主義研究之理論及方法，依據民粹主義「供需理論」的架構，分析「亞洲民主動態調查」(Asian Barometer Survey, ABS)的第四波與第五波臺灣調查資料，並透過以機器學習為基礎的變數篩選方法，來進行各種民粹主義態度解釋顯著性的比較，進而達成理論辯證的結果。 本文發現，身為上一次總統大選中的選舉輸家，更能夠預測臺灣選民的民粹主義態度生成。相較於經濟衰退、文化變遷造成的焦慮或對中國因素的態度，政治制度安排所造成的「贏家全拿」效果或許才是臺灣民粹主義的真正根源。這個發現意味著，民粹主義在臺灣並非是特定政黨、族群或階級獨有的政治態度，也不會因為特定政黨落敗就消聲匿跡。
並列摘要
Before academia focused on the economic and political consequences of COVID-19, the rising far-right populism in Western Europe was considered the worst crisis of the modern liberal democratic order. In terms of scale, populism also spread across contexts, including the "Han Kuo-Yu phenomenon" in Taiwan. From Trump to Han Kuo-Yu, populism has shown its defining trait of creating atypical electoral results. Electorates affected by populism abandon their political cleavage in support of populist candidates. This puzzling phenomenon begs the question of why electorates support populism. In other words, why and how did populist attitudes occur among the electorates. Combining existing theories and contemporary research methodology on populism, this research takes on two cases of the populist movement in post-democratic Taiwan. To find out why Taiwanese electorates developed a populist attitude, a machine-learning variable selection process is performed on the Asian Barometer Survey (ABS) database. This research finds out that, contrary to commonly recognized reasons for populist support, being electoral losers in the last presidential election is the best predictor of populist attitude among the Taiwanese voters. This result indicates dissatisfaction with the electoral system could be the primary stimuli for populist attitudes. It also means populism in Taiwan is not bound to particular demographic features or partisanship. This discovery is innovative not only in the Taiwanese context, for it creates a new theoretical possibility for future comparative research.
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