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  • 學位論文

臺灣參與區域經濟整合的政策選項:以CPTPP、臺美BTA和臺日EPA為例

Policy Alternatives of Participation in Regional Economic Integration of Taiwan: Cases Study of CPTPP, Taiwan-US BTA, and Taiwan-Japan EPA

指導教授 : 陳明通

摘要


本研究旨在探討臺灣參與區域經濟整合的可能選項,以CPTPP、臺美BTA和臺日EPA為研究對象,嘗試從經濟分析的角度,評估此三個自由貿易協定對臺灣經濟與環境的影響。    2021年9月,中國和臺灣先後遞件申請加入CPTPP,但由於CPTPP准入條件是採取共識決,中國是否會影響CPTPP成員國對臺灣申請加入的批准態度,仍存在高度的不確定。有鑒於此,臺灣應同步思考CPTPP以外的替代方案,藉此分散屆時若未能加入CPTPP而在全球區域經濟整合浪潮中被邊緣化的風險。    本研究發現,臺灣若未能加入CPTPP,將對我國經濟成長、貿易、經濟福利,以及產業生產活動帶來負面影響。反之,若臺灣能加入CPTPP,對我國經濟成長、貿易、經濟福利及產業產出將有正向助益。值得一提的是,本研究發現,臺灣和中國加入CPTPP之後,中國對臺灣的出口將大幅增加,故就經濟利益而言,中國應要樂見臺灣加入CPTPP。在臺美BTA和臺日EPA方面,若臺灣能與美、日兩國簽署FTA,確實能減緩臺灣因無法參與CPTPP對國內總體與產業經濟所帶來的負面衝擊。臺美BTA和臺日EPA確實可作為臺灣無法加入CPTPP的可行替代方案。    有關環境影響方面,本研究發現,不論是加入CPTPP或與美、日兩國簽署FTA,臺灣的CO2排放量都將隨著產業生產活動的擴張而上升。此結果象徵臺灣在積極參與區域經濟整合的過程中,亦需同步構思邁向碳中和與淨零碳排的具體因應作法,避免在全球減碳倡議趨勢下,對國內產業的未來發展形成阻礙。

並列摘要


This research aims to explore the possible options for Taiwan’s participation in regional economic integration. Taking CPTPP, Taiwan-US Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) and Taiwan-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) as the research objectives, this research attempts to evaluate the impact of these three free trade agreements on Taiwan’s economy and environment from the perspective of economic analysis. In September 2021, China and Taiwan successively submitted applications to join the CPTPP. However, since the CPTPP access conditions are based on a consensus decision, there is still a high degree of uncertainty as to whether China will affect the CPTPP member states’ attitude towards approving Taiwan’s application for accession. Given this, Taiwan should simultaneously consider alternatives to the CPTPP to disperse the risk of being marginalized in the wave of regional economic integration around the world, if it fails to join the CPTPP at that time. This research finds that if Taiwan fails to join the CPTPP, it will have a negative impact on Taiwan’s economic growth, trade, economic welfare, and industrial production activities. On the contrary, if Taiwan can join the CPTPP, it will benefit Taiwan’s economic growth, trade, economic welfare and industrial output. It is worth mentioning that this research finds that China’s exports to Taiwan will increase significantly after Taiwan and China both join the CPTPP. Hence, in terms of economic interest, China should be delighted to see Taiwan join the CPTPP. In terms of the Taiwan-US BTA and the Taiwan-Japan EPA, if Taiwan can sign FTA with the US and Japan, it can alleviate the negative impact of Taiwan’s inability to participate in the CPTPP on the overall domestic and industrial economy. The Taiwan-US BTA and the Taiwan-Japan EPA can indeed serve as viable alternatives to Taiwan’s inability to join the CPTPP. Regarding environmental impact, this research finds that Taiwan’s CO2 emissions will increase with the expansion of industrial production activities, whether it joins the CPTPP or signs FTA with the US and Japan. The result symbolizes that while Taiwan is actively participating in the process of regional economic integration, it is also necessary to simultaneously conceive specific measures to move towards carbon neutrality and net-zero carbon emissions, to avoid hindering the future development of domestic industries under the trend of global carbon reduction initiative.

參考文獻


壹、中文
一、專書
王茜(2012)。《世界貿易組織經濟學》。北京:法律出版社。
洪財隆(2017)。《邊緣戰略,臺灣和區域經濟整合的虛與實》。臺北:允晨文化。
劉碧珍、翁永和、陳添枝(2010)。《國際貿易理論與政策》,臺北:雙葉書廊。

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