外人直接投資與經濟增長：臺灣與東南亞國家實證研究

Foreign Direct Investment and Growth: New Perspectives for Taiwan and Southeast Asian countries

安氏秋河(An Thi Thu Ha)

指導教授 ： 葉國俊

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/國家發展研究所/博士(2021年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU202102176

摘要

在世界經濟不確定性的新背景下，儘管全球外商直接投資（FDI）漲跌不一，但亞洲新興和發展中地區已成為全球資本流動活躍、前景廣闊的投資樞紐。特別是東亞和東南亞是全球和區域內 FDI 流動價值和份額最大的聚光燈。這些經濟體也是世界上最重要的貿易協定的主要參與者，目前在全球範圍內實現了最快的增長率。
本論文的最初動機是過去十年東亞和東南亞的這些亮點，這推動了對該地區的外國投資、貿易多元化、經濟增長和區域一體化進行更新和全面評估的必要性。本次評估特別選擇台灣和東南亞作為重點。台灣可能是證明對外投資多元化是出於經濟目的和安全考慮的最佳案例。與此同時，東南亞被認為是包括台灣及其東亞鄰國在內的幾個發達經濟體投資者最有潛力的目標。此外，台灣和東南亞是歷史貿易和投資關係的重要合作夥伴。
本論文旨在對（1）台灣在東南亞的投資區位決策和（2）FDI對亞洲新興和發展中國家經濟增長的影響進行定量分析。具體而言，第 4 章提出了第一個問題，我們在考慮經濟因素和政治制度問題的情況下處理台灣對外直接投資決定因素的實證文獻中的空白。本章採用動態面板回歸模型的方法來展示每個驅動因素在短期和長期的作用。第 5 章旨在了解 FDI 的增長促進效應以及金融體系在亞洲新興和發展中國家的作用。通過採用閾值方法，本文展示了金融發展閾值在調節 FDI 對經濟增長的非線性效應中的作用。這也是第一項提供估計的外國直接投資對亞洲新興和發展中經濟體的非線性增長效應和個別邊際效應的研究。

關鍵字

外商直接投資 ； 制度質量 ； 金融發展 ； 經濟增長 ； 台灣 ； 東南亞 ； 面板回歸模型ARDL ； 門檻迴歸模型分析

並列摘要

In the new context of uncertainties in the world economy, despite mixed fluctuation and contraction in worldwide foreign direct investment (FDI), emerging and developing Asia has been a standout as an active and promising investment hub of the global capital flows. Particularly, East and Southeast Asia are the spotlights with the largest value and share of FDI flows globally and intra-regionally. These economies are also the key players in the world’s most significant trade agreements and currently achieve the fastest growth rates worldwide.
This thesis is initially motivated by these highlights of East and Southeast Asia in the past decade, which push the necessity of an updated and comprehensive assessment on foreign investment, trade diversification, economic growth, and regional integration in the region. Taiwan and Southeast Asia are specially selected to be focused on in this assessment. Taiwan might be the best case to demonstrate that diversification in outward investment is for economic purposes and security concerns. Meanwhile, Southeast Asia is considered the most potential target of several advanced economy investors, including Taiwan and its East Asian neighbors. Besides, Taiwan and Southeast Asia are essential partners in historical trading and investment relationships.
This thesis is intended to provide quantitative analyses into (1) investment locational decision of Taiwan in Southeast Asia and (2) effects of FDI on economic growth in emerging and developing Asia. Specifically, chapter 4 presents the first issue, where we deal with the gaps in the empirical literature on determinants of Taiwan’s outward FDI, considering economic factors and political-institutional issues. The chapter adopts a dynamic panel regression approach to show the role of each driver in the short run and the long run. Chapter 5 targets to fulfill the knowledge of the growth-enhancing effect of FDI and the role of the financial system in emerging and developing Asian countries. By employing a threshold approach, this chapter shows findings of the threshold of financial development mediating the nonlinear effect of FDI on economic growth. This is also the first study to provide the estimated nonlinear growth effect and individual marginal effects of FDI for emerging and developing Asian economies.

並列關鍵字

Foreign direct investment ； Institutional quality ； Financial development ； Economic growth ； Taiwan ； Southeast Asia ； Panel ARDL ； Threshold approach

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