香港居民對香港警察及駐港解放軍的信任變遷研究
～2001-2016年四波調查的分析

香港主權轉移21年來，中國與香港交流日益密切，然而卻隨之產生各種矛盾與衝突。本文為了瞭解香港民眾對香港警察與駐港人民解放軍的政治信任，使用2001年至2016年臺灣大學東亞民主研究中心「亞洲民主動態調查香港調查研究計畫」所進行的四波(2001、2007、2012、2016)調查資料，並透過理論回顧與文獻探討，運用「二元勝算對數迴歸分析」建立調查年度、性別、年齡、教育程度、家庭每月平均收入、社會階層、宗教信仰、政治認同、民主量表等獨立變數，對駐港人民解放軍以及香港警察信任的解釋模型，以瞭解這些獨立變數對依變數的解釋能力。研究發現：一、香港民眾自2007年以來，愈來愈不信任香港警察；自2001年以來則愈來愈不信任駐港人民解放軍。二、女性、年長、民間信仰（祭祖拜神）者，較信任香港警察；男性、年長、教育程度高、家庭每月平均收入低、民間信仰（祭祖拜神）、政治認同「建制派」者，較信任駐港人民解放軍。三、男性、年輕、政治認同「本土派」、民主量表傾向「自主權」、「平等權」及「自由權」者，較不信任香港警察；女性、年輕、教育程度低、家庭每月平均收入高、民主量表傾向「自主權」者，較不信任駐港人民解放軍。

關鍵字

政治信任；一國兩制；香港

並列摘要

In the 21 years since the transfer of sovereignty in Hong Kong, the exchanges and interactions between China and Hong Kong have become increasingly close. However, there are various contradictions and conflicts. In order to understand the political trust of the Hong Kong people in the Hong Kong Police and the People's Liberation Army in Hong Kong, this study uses the "The Asian Barometer Survey's Hong Kong Survey and Research Project" provided by Center for East Asia Democratic Studies, NTU from 2001 to 2016. The survey data of the four (2001, 2007, 2012, 2016) surveys conducted at that time were taken as samples. Moreover, through theoretical review and literature discussion, "Logistic regression" is used to establish independent variables based on survey year, gender, age, education level, average monthly household income, social class, religious belief, political identity, and democratic scale. . In this way, an explanatory model for the trust of the People's Liberation Army in Hong Kong and the Hong Kong Police is established to understand the ability of these independent variables to interpret variables. The study found: I. The people of Hong Kong have been increasingly distrusting the Hong Kong police since 2007. Since 2001, the people have become less and less convinced of the People’s Liberation Army in Hong Kong. II. Women, seniors, and folk beliefs (who worship the gods) are more trusting than the Hong Kong police. Men, seniors, high education, low average monthly household income, folk beliefs (who worship the gods), and political identity as "constructionists" are more trusting in the People's Liberation Army. III. Men who are male, young, politically identified as "localists" and who prefer "autonomy", "equal rights" and "freedom" in the democratic scale have less trust in the Hong Kong police. Women, young people, low education, high average monthly household income, and "autonomy" in the democratic scale are less likely to trust the People's Liberation Army.