由於臺灣近年來的能源轉型及尖峰時刻的使用電量急遽上升,台電推動的需量反應管理措施也成為了值得關注的問題。前面會闡述臺灣目前需量反應所採取的措施以及電業法相關進程,了解台灣目前遇到的問題與困境;分析各項天氣變因及中央氣象局的天氣預報準確度,搭配文獻資料及專家訪談的內容進行探討;綜合上述的資料,找出適合的問題進行分析。 本篇論文將提出一個賽局,經由兩個企業決定是否參與需量競價時會發生的狀況,並在雙方皆參與時相互競合為例,利用動態賽局和逆向歸納法分析,目標找出台電方與企業方的策略,使企業更傾向使用需量競價。最後利用電量預測近期研究成果並與台電方索取相關數據資料,利用賽局所做出的條件式與策略,進行實證分析。
Due to Taiwan's energy transition and sharply increase in power consumption during peak hours in recent years, Demand Response promoted by Taiwan Power Company has also become a concern. The previous part explain the current measures for demand response taken by Taiwan’s and the process of the Electricity Law to understand the problems and difficulties encountered in Taiwan; analyze various weather variables and the accuracy of the weather forecast of the Central Weather Bureau (CWB), searched reference and interviewed experts to discuss the above-mention; Integrate the abovementioned information to find suitable problems for analysis. This Study proposes a game theoretical model, analyze the condition on the Demand Bidding of two enterprises. If both enterprises participate in the Demand Bidding, they will select competition or cooperation. Then we use backward induction to analyze the dynamic game and find the strategy for the Taiwan Power Company and the enterprises, makes enterprises more inclined to use demand bidding. Finally, use the recent research results of electricity forecasting and obtain relevant data from the Taiwan Power Company, and use the conditions and strategies made by the game theoretical model to conduct empirical analysis.
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