櫻花鈎吻鮭棲地氣候變遷衝擊評估與季節性預警系統建立

The Climate Change Impact Assessment and The Establishment of Seasonal Early Warning System for The Habitat of Formosan Landlocked Salmon

彭柏文(Po-Wen Perng)

指導教授 ： 童慶斌

國立臺灣大學/生物資源暨農學院/生物環境系統工程學研究所/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2011.01125

摘要

櫻花鈎吻鮭（學名Oncorhynchus masou formosanus）是台灣之重要生態物種，更是世界重要的自然資源，七家灣溪是櫻花鈎吻鮭重要的棲地，但其棲地範圍受到人為活動的影響而逐漸縮減。而流量和水溫為櫻花鈎吻鮭重要之環境因子，然氣候變遷可能改變水溫與流量，進而影響棲地，促使我們去探討流量和水溫在集水區內的變化。
根據文獻連續七日水溫十分重要，因此，本研究首先進行水溫模式之修正，透過連續監測之溫度紀錄並配合模式之計算，精進過去所發展之水溫模式，加入雲遮蔽與逕流匯入之影響，突破以往水溫模式使用上受到天氣條件之限制，使模式具有連續模擬之能力，結果顯示此模式可以合理模擬連續水溫，將可有效做為氣候變化對於櫻花鈎吻鮭棲地影響之評估工具。
在棲地的衝擊評估上，本研究選定INM-CM3、MRI-CGCM2_3_2、NCAR-CCSM3及UKMO-HADCM3四個大氣環流模式與A2、A1B、B1三種氣候變遷預設情境，以分析氣候變遷對於櫻花鈎吻鮭棲地流量和水溫的影響。另外本研究針對河川水文特性，以七家灣溪為範例，建構櫻花鈎吻鮭的季節性生態預警系統，配合季長期預報和水文、水溫模擬，預知流量和水溫的資訊。本研究所建構之預警系統能將七家灣溪各個河段流量和水溫之季節性預報結果發佈，利用圖片呈現各個河段在流量與水溫面臨的風險，未來並與網路結合，使訊息能夠即時進行更新，讓相關保育單位能在放流工作進行前，選擇風險較低的河段來人工放流，提高放流的成功率。

關鍵字

櫻花鈎吻鮭 ； 流量 ； 水溫 ； 氣候變遷 ； 季節性預報

並列摘要

Formosan Landlocked Salmon (the scientific name Oncorhynchus masou formosanus) is an important specie of Taiwan. And more important, it is also the natural assets of the world. The ChiChaWan Creek is an important habitat of Formosa Landlocked Salmon. Yet, the range of habitat has been reducing gradually by the impact of human activities. Stream discharge and stream temperature are essential factors for Formosa Landlocked Salmon. Climate change may alter stream temperature and stream flows and then further affect the habitat of salmon which makes us to evaluate the possible change of stream flows and stream temperature in the catchment area.
According to the literature, stream temperature of seven continuous days is important. Therefore, this study works on the model’s improvement on the capability of continuous simulation first. Through continuous monitoring of stream temperature records and calculated with the model, improves stream temperature model, developed by the past. Adding the effect of cloud cover and surface runoff, the stream temperature model breaks through the limitation of weather conditions. The results show this model could reasonably simulate stream temperature continuously. And it will be an effective assessment tool for salmon habitat.
In order to analyze the impact on the salmon habitat under climate change, the study choose four GCMs, including INM-CM3, MRI-CGCM2_3_2, NCAR-CCSM3 and UKMO-HADCM3 and three SRES scenarios, including A2, A1B and B1. To reduce the risk of the failure of reintroduction, anticipatory assessments of choosing the appropriate section of river for reintroduction become essential. To exhibit the seasonal early warning system for the Formosan Landlocked salmon, this study takes ChiChaWan Creek as an example and focuses on the hydrological and thermal characteristics of the river. The early warning system can provide stream flows and stream temperature information in advance. This study further illustrates the risk of stream discharge and stream temperature of the river on the map. Besides, the messages can be updated instantly; hence, the authority can choose the most appropriate rivers section before reintroduction. In the future, early warning systems can be extended to all the upstream tributaries of DaJia Creek.

並列關鍵字

Formosa Landlocked Salmon ； stream flows ； stream temperature ； climate change ； seasonal forecast

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