民意在日本之北韓政策中的地位與影響之研究

The Role and Influence of Public Opinion on Japan’s North Korea Policy

侯羽穎(Yu-Ying Hou)

指導教授 ： 楊永明

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/政治學研究所/碩士(2012年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2012.10347

摘要

「主權在民」是現代民主國家的成立基礎，因此當一國政府在制定其安全與外交政策時，探求民意所向是不可或缺的步驟。然而，民意對一國外交與安全政策的影響力究竟是正面或是負面，自古以來即有許多辯論，至今尚無明確的結果。由於日本為一民主國家，其政策制定過程亦受到民意的牽制，因此本研究以日本的北韓政策為例，試圖探究民意在日本的北韓政策中的地位與影響。

本研究發現，雖然在冷戰時期日本與北韓兩國保持著相當程度的友好交流，然而在1998年的大浦洞飛彈事件以及2002年的日朝領袖會談之後，日本民意對北韓的觀感惡化，導致日本政府改變其原有的政策方針，因而突顯了民意在日本的北韓政策中的地位。此外，在北韓綁架日本公民的議題浮上檯面之後，在各種重要團體與媒體的影響之下，日本民意對北韓的態度與立場日趨僵化，綁架問題成為日本人在談及北韓時最關心的議題。在民意的影響下，日本政府在六方會談中亦採取對北韓的一連串強硬作為，進而引起六方會談中其他國家的不滿。本研究認為日本政府過度傾向民意有違日本的國家利益。日本若要解決綁架問題，必須再次與北韓進行對話。首先應支持美國展開與北韓的交涉，如此一來六方會談才得以順利開展，並能為日朝兩國重新展開交涉提供新的契機。

關鍵字

民意 ； 國家外交與安全政策 ； 日朝關係 ； 人質綁架議題 ； 六方會談

並列摘要

According to Rousseau, “sovereignty should be in the hands of the people.” That is the principle that guides the democracy. Hence, as a democratic country, detecting the public opinion is always the must before conducting its security and foreign policy. However, there is chronological debate about whether the public opinion has led the policy on the right track or not. The whole world is still searching for the answer.

Since Japan is one of the democratic countries, its public policies are inclined to be formed and to be affected by public opinion. The thesis is aimed to find out what role does the public opinion of Japan played during the formation of Japan’s North Korea policy.

The thesis suggests that although Japan and the DPRK maintained solid relations during the Cold War, after the Taepodong missile launched in 1998 and the Japan-North Korea Summit in 2002, the Japanese public opinion towards the DPRK deteriorated which lead to a change in Japan’s foreign policy. These events accentuate the importance of public opinion in issues concerning the DPRK in Japan. Moreover, after the abduction issue emerged and became the top concern of the Japanese people, the attitude from the public in Japan towards the DPRK has become rigid under the influence of the media and interest groups. Under the influence of public opinion, the tough actions taken by the Japanese government towards the DPRK in Six-Party Talk generated dissatisfaction from other participating countries.

This thesis argues that over-emphasizing public opinion is against the national interests of Japan. Japan must re-engage in the dialogue with the DPRK to resolve the abduction issue. The top priority for the Japanese government is to advocate the negotiation between the United States and the DPRK in order to facilitate the Six-Party Talk and subsequently pave way for the resumption of dialogue between Japan and the DPRK.

並列關鍵字

public opinion ； national foreign and security policy ； Japan-DPRK relation ； abduction issue ； the Six-Party Talk

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