綜合國內外經濟情勢,顯見2020年中台灣經濟成長動能趨疲,各界憂慮恐將邁入景氣循環收縮期。因此,本研究參考相關文獻,據以測試相關經濟數列,篩選出6個循環對應良好、領先性較佳之構成項目,合成新指標綜合指數,並以Probit模型及ProbVAR模型預測台灣景氣衰退機率。 研究結果顯示,由Probit及ProbVAR模型預測之景氣衰退機率在2020年中皆大幅攀升,惟Probit模型預測之衰退機率仍未達過去判定轉折點依據之機率值水準,而ProbVAR預測之衰退機率在近期雖已達到過去判定轉折點之機率值水準,但預測模型顯示隨後衰退機率將快速下滑,因此仍難以認定我國經濟將步入衰退,建議未來可採用該等模型持續關注。
Based on the economic situation, it is obvious that Taiwan ’s economic growth momentum is weakening in-mid 2020. This study refers to related literature, tests the relevant economic series, selects 6 appropriate leading indicators and predicts the probability of recessions with the Probit and ProbVAR model. The empirical results of this study show that the recession probability rise sharply in mid-2020. However, the value is not reached the turning points in the past with the Probit model; and the value is reached the turning points in the past with ProbVAR model, but it falls sharply after climbing to the peak. Therefore, it is still difficult to determine that the economy has entered a recession, and recommended keeping under observation with these models.