摘要
偵測犯罪熱點對於犯罪研究一直以來都是很重要的議題。近年來關於時空交互作用的分析方法越來越受重視，而偵測時空群聚方法已被證明能有效地了解犯罪動態現象。本研究使用地理資訊系統與SaTScan軟體，進行時空分析來偵測台北市2010年傷害罪與住宅竊盜罪的時空分布現象，並進一步視覺化繪製成犯罪地圖。在了解時空中犯罪的分布特性後，進而利用區位分析驗證犯罪學理論。在實務上，本研究冀望能提供給決策者支援如何制訂有效地犯罪防治政策來嚇阻犯罪，提升治安層級。犯罪區位分析發現犯罪群聚內外的區位特性確實存在著差異，位於犯罪群聚內的鄰里，社會解組程度通常較高。社會解組理論中的「家庭破裂」指標有較佳的預測犯罪效力，離婚人口比率高的鄰里，較易形成犯罪群聚。關於日常生活理論部分，「合適的目標」與「監控能力」此兩項指標在統計上具有犯罪預測效力，但「有動機的犯罪者」指標中的變項則與犯罪群聚現象皆無顯著關連。
並列摘要
Detecting crime hotspot is always an important issue in crime research. In recent years, the analysis of space-time interactions is getting more and more popular. Indeed, exploring space-time cluster which adds a temporal dimension to traditional spatial cluster analysis or time series analysis has been proven to be effective in detecting crime dynamic. This paper thus aims to use this method to study crime in Taipei City in 2010. Using Geographic Information System (GIS) and SaTScan software, this study runs space-time analysis to investigate spatial and temporal patterns of assault and burglary as well as visualize space-time crime patterns in crime maps. The overall objective of this study is to detect time-space clusters of crimes, and examine the theories of crime by crime location analysis. It is expected the result of this study can assist policymakers and researchers in planning crime reduction projects and generating advanced theories to explore crimes. The results indicate that specific characteristics are different inside and outside the cluster region. For social disorganization theory, neighborhoods located within the cluster which often with high levels of social disorganization. “Family disrupt” is the strongest predictor of crime: neighborhoods with high rates of divorce population have more chances to create crime clusters. For routine activity theory, “Suitable target” and “Capable guardian” are the strongest predictors of crime, whereas “Motivated offender” is not significantly associated with crime.
參考文獻
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