制度存續的鬥爭：影響北韓金正日時期(1990-2011)對外行為的國內因素

The Struggle for Regime Survival: Domestic Factors Affecting DPRK Foreign Behaviors during the Kim Jong Il Era (1990-2011)

林伯駿(Po-chun Lin)

指導教授 ： 楊永明

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/政治學研究所/碩士(2012年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2012.01449

摘要

北韓自冷戰結束以來一直被視為東亞孜全局面的破壞者，不僅發展核武和彈道飛彈，也保持著數量龐大的傳統武力，且不時利用武力向周邊國家進行要脅，至今也仍不放棄武力統一朝鮮半島的原則。但在進行挑釁意味十足行動的同時，北韓也在保持封閉與不走中國式經濟改革開放的狀態下，除了與中俄兩國保持傳統上的友好關係外，也尋求與美日間的邦交正常化、同南韓展開雙邊經濟合作、對資本主義國家開展「實利外交」，並利用經濟特區希望吸引外資促進經濟發展等和平性作為。這種兩面手法加上北韓本身的資訊不透明，使得國際社會對北韓的對外行為有「不理性」、「窮兵黷武」和「具不可預測性」等誤解。
　　可是在當今學術研究中，不少學者認為北韓對外政策具有務實主義和現實主義性質，而筆者認為會產生上述誤解的原因在於對影響北韓對外政策的國內因素了解不足所致。因此，本文擬用新古典現實主義的分析模式，分別針對歷史因素、國內政治制度以及北韓的官方意識型態等三個面向進行分析，試圖討論不同國內因素如何影響北韓的對外政策，並透過對北韓和重要國家之間的外交關係、北韓的對外經濟行為，以及北韓的核武和飛彈外交來檢證這些國內因素對北韓對外行為的影響，並分析北韓在看似矛盾的對外行為背後所追求的政治目標為何。最後，根據上述的分析，筆者歸納出「對美外交是金正日時期的外交重心」、「思想因素對北韓對外行為的影響相當深遠」、「對外行為中偏好採取非傳統手段」、「外交決策體系高度集中」和「對外經濟在北韓對外關係中只是達成政治目標的輔助性條件」等五點北韓對外政策的特徵，希望有助於對北韓對外政策的進一步了解與分析。

關鍵字

朝鮮民主主義人民共和國（北韓） ； 金正日 ； 主體思想 ； 先軍政治 ； 國內因素

並列摘要

Since the end of the Cold War, North Korea has been seen as an unstable factor of East Asian security. She not only develops nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, but also maintains a large number of traditional forces, threatens her neighboring states with military force, and is not willing to abandon the possibility of unifying the Korean Peninsula with force. Alongside with these provocative gestures, under the status of isolation and not following the Chinese method of economic reformation, North Korea is not only maintaining her traditional friendship with China and Russia, but is also seeking to normalize her diplomatic relations with the USA and Japan, cooperating with South Korea economically, practicing her “practical diplomacy” against capitalist states, and seeking economic development and foreign investment via establishing economic special zones. The two-handed strategy and the non-transparency of North Korean information caused the international society to misunderstand North Korea as an “irrational”, “provocative”, or “unpredicable”state.
On the other hand, in present day academic studies, many scholars see North Korean‟s foreign policies holding pragmatic and realistic characters, and I think the reason causing the previous mentioned misunderstanding is due to the lack of understanding on North Korea‟s domestic factors. Under such assumption, this thesis borrows the research structure of neo-classical realism and attempts to analyze North Korea‟s foreign policy through historical factors, domestic political system and North Korea‟s official ideology, and discuss how these different domestic factors influence North Korea‟s foreign behaviors. At the same time, I also attempt to examine the correlations between the previous mentioned domestic factors and North Korea‟s diplomatic relations with major states, North Korea‟s foreign economic behaviors, and her nuclear and missile diplomacy. The ultimate political goal behind North Korea‟s contradictory foreign behaviors will also examined. Finally, according to these analysis, I argue that during the Kim Jong Il era, North Korea‟s foreign behaviors had the following traits: 1) the foreign relation with the USA is top priority in the Kim Jong Il era; 2) idea factors influence North Korea‟s foreign behaviors deeply and thoroughly; 3) North Korea tends to use unconventional strategies; 4) her foreign-policy decision-making system is highly centralized; and 5) foreign economic behavior plays a subordinate role in achieving her political goal.

並列關鍵字

Kim Jong Il ； Juche Sasang ； Songun Chonchi ； domestic factors

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