「帝國智囊團」如何「畫龍點睛」？
——美國外交關係協會及其變動的中國研究
（1995—2017）

權力轉移理論從「權力」和「意圖」兩個面向來分析新興強權和既有霸權之間的和、戰關係，故因對當今中美關係的解釋力而備受重視。但由於「權力」和「意圖」在測量上的標準不一，限制了該理論的發展。本文汲取權力轉移理論的概念，作為思考中美關係的理論背景，同時並不糾纏於精準確定「權力」和「意圖」的測算方式，而是直接選擇「外交關係協會」及其歷年中國研究成果作為研究對象。這一代表美國富豪統治集團與專業學者階層聯合的會員組織、智庫複合體首先是外界公認的美國最具外交政策影響力的組織，而其歷年的中國研究報告，又與美國決策層、菁英層乃至大眾輿論有著密切的聯繫，無疑是美國方面思考及制訂對華戰略、政策的重要知識及意見來源。因而透過對「外交關係協會」本身及其歷年中國研究成果的統計及內容分析，本文以第一手資料為支撐，對「外交關係協會」從性質到機制再到歷年研究成果的系統性探究，既是中文學界美國智庫研究的原創性貢獻，也力求突破既有智庫研究的框架，提出「外交關係協會」作為會員組織和智庫複合體，超出單純智庫及相應智庫研究框架的獨特性。其次又基於「美國智庫中國學」的脈絡，對既有霸權對新興強權「權力」和「意圖」的認知有直觀、豐富的認識，因此既可與現有的國際關係理論產生有效的對話，亦為理解過去、現在及未來的美國對華戰略以及中美關係提供寶貴的素材。

關鍵字

權力轉移；中美關係；美國智庫；中國研究；外交關係協會；新自由主義地緣政治

並列摘要

The Power Transition theory relies on the notions of “Power” and “Intentions” to analyze competition between the “Hegemonic Power” and the “Great Power” on the rise. The aim of the theory is to explain the peace and war issue resulting from such competition. The theory seems applicable to contemporary Sino-American relations. However, practically neither “Power” nor “Intention” has clear cut indicators to engender any consensus between China watchers regarding China being a status quo or a revisionist power. The theoretical perspective of Power Transition allows the audience to understand how China experts decide. In the current study, China experts of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) make the object of research. The publications of the CFR during the last two decades are read against their judgment on China’s “Power” and “Intentions” in order to explain their policy recommendations becoming confrontational or not. The CFR is arguably the most influential private organization as regards the U.S. foreign policy making. This is probably because it is not a typical think tank. In fact, first and foremost as a long-time membership organization, its members include Wall Street plutocracies, owners or leaders of multinational cooperation, and the professional class, like scholars or professors. As a result, the CFR and its China Reports echoes the U.S. decision-making circle,. This is why the “China Image” presented in its reports informs how most likely the U.S. government considers China. Through the content analysis of the CFR China Reports from 1995-2017, China’s “Power” and “Intentions” in the American perceptions can be acquired. The evolution of this image connects analysis of practitioners’ view to theories of International Relations. It enables a better understanding of the U.S. China Policy and the Sino-American Relations.

並列關鍵字

Power Transition ； Sino-American Relations ； American Think-Tank ； China Studies ； the Council on Foreign Relations ； Neoliberal Geopolitics

參考文獻

羅峰，2006，〈聲名顯赫的對外關係委員會〉，《社會觀察》，8：7-9。

陳重成，唐欣偉，2005，〈中國大陸崛起對當前國際體系的衝擊〉，《遠景基金會季刊》，6（4）：101-137

Jonathan D. Pollack. 2016. “China and North Korea: The Long Goodbye?” Order from Chaos (blog), Brookings Institution, March 28, http://www.brookings.edu/ blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2016/03/28-china-north-korea-sanctions-pollack.

Laurence H. Shoup, William Minter著，上海譯文出版社譯，1981，《帝國智囊團——對外關係委員會和美國外交政策》，上海：上海譯文出版社。譯自 Imperial brain trust: The Council on Foreign Relations and United States foreign policy. iUniverse, 2004.

Boot, M. 2014. The savage wars of peace: Small wars and the rise of American power. New York: Basic Books.

國際替代計量

「帝國智囊團」如何「畫龍點睛」？ ——美國外交關係協會及其變動的中國研究（1995—2017）

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