建構論戰略賽局：以20世紀初沙俄戰略能力為例（1904－1918）

Constructivist Strategic Games: Strategic Ability of Tsarist Russia in Early 20th Century as an Example (1904–1918)

何冠威(Kuan-Wei Ho)

指導教授 ： 袁易

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/政治學研究所/碩士(2017年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201703825

摘要

本研究旨在探討如何於戰略賽局中藉由溫特提出的三種集體身分形塑機制改變行為者間集體身分，而此種集體身分轉變是否足以影響系統內各行為者戰略能力。於此過程中，本文尤重此過程間的賽局演變情形。
為檢視三種外因機制對戰略能力的影響，筆者以20世紀初沙俄戰略能力為觀察對象，時間起自日俄戰爭、迄於蘇俄退出第一次世界大戰，並選用1905年三起衝擊沙俄戰略能力的集體身分變遷經典範例，依次演示三種外因機制改變戰略能力之過程。
於結構系絡機制部分，本研究以血腥星期日事件為例，藉由東正教工人運動將新知識注入結構的過程，瞭解共享知識改變行為者對結構系絡內化程度的方式，以臻滿足無政府文化轉移的臨界條件，造成對手間戰略能力消長。
於系統過程機制部分，本研究以葛拉夫頓號蒸汽船事件為例，藉由沙俄治下芬蘭人與日本政府間互賴關係的發生，探究互賴關係如何開啟戰略賽局，而行為者又如何藉由新合作關係的建立與權力的移轉來達成戰略目標。
於策略實務機制部分，本研究以坡坦金號軍艦叛變事件為例，試解釋戰略賽局下邊陲層級如何依據環境變化來進行理性決策；在首次與他者合作反抗中心層級後，何以促成其它邊陲層級的仿效，使邊陲層級對期望值的預期被扭曲。本文試以賽局中的未知數解釋此種心理。
藉此三項案例，本研究冀能呈現集體身分對於達成戰略目標的工具性，並提供一種容易運用於政治、軍事實務的建構論戰略觀。

關鍵字

集體身分 ； 戰略賽局 ； 結構系絡 ； 系統過程 ； 策略實務 ； 無政府文化 ； 中心與邊陲層級 ； 日俄戰爭 ； 俄國革命

並列摘要

The main purpose of the thesis is to explore how to transform collective identities between the actors in a strategic game through three types of collective identity forming mechanisms put forward by Alexander E. Wendt, and whether this kind of transformation is sufficient to change the strategic abilities of the actors inside the game system. It especially focuses on the evolution of the games in this kind of process.
For examining the influence of these three exogenous mechanisms upon strategic abilities, it takes the strategic ability of Russian Monarchist Faction, including Tsarist Russian Government and the White Army later, as a case observed. The timeline of the case discussed in the thesis starts from the Russo-Japanese War, and end at the withdrawal of the Soviet Russia from World War I. There are three classical examples occur in 1905, which had damaged the strategic ability of Tsarist Russia, and each of them related to a type of exogenous mechanisms Wendt said.
In the part of structural contexts, the study takes the incident of Bloody Sunday as an example, showing how Orthodox workers' movement as a new knowledge changed internalized degree of structural context for actors, and how it make the degree meet the critical point shifting cultures of anarchy, resulting in the change of relative strategical ability between the rivals.
In the part of systemic processes, the study takes the arms smuggling of steamship SS John Grafton as an example, showing how interdependence begin between Finnish people under Russian ruling and Japanese government and start a strategic game, and how these actors achieve their strategic goals with the establishment of new cooperative relation and transfer of power.
In the part of strategic practice, the study takes the case of the mutiny of warship Potemkin as an example, explaining how a peripheral actor inside a strategic game make rational decision based on the environmental change, and how other peripheral actors imitate their cooperation with outsider revolting their centric actor, changing their expectations toward a successful rebellion. The study would like to explain this kind of psychological conversion by the unknown numbers in the game.
The study expect to present the instrumental value of collective identity on achieving strategic goals, for offering a constructivist strategic view able to be easily used in political and military practices.

並列關鍵字

collective identity ； strategic game ； structural contexts ； systemic processes ； strategic practices ； cultures of anarchy ； center and periphery ； Russo-Japanese War ； Russian Revolution

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Academy of Sciences of the USSR, 1974. International Solidarity with the Spanish Republic, 1936–1939, Moscow: Progress.