臺灣發展電動機車對環境與經濟之影響評估

面對全球暖化日益嚴重，電動車發展成為各國政府欲解決運輸部門排放的減量策略之一，儘管臺灣並非聯合國一員，仍順應全球減碳趨勢，將電動機車產業納為推廣目標。臺灣最早的電動機車由工研院於1995年研發，然而真正邁入高速發展的階段，則始於2015年普通重型車款Gogoro問世，並帶動臺灣採用以電池交換為主的能源補充模式。而電動機車對於臺灣的影響，不僅是環境面的改善，更期望為總體經濟創造額外的價值，故本研究回顧國內外文獻以及訪談國內廠商與產業協會，應用臺灣2011年產業關聯表與可計算一般均衡模型，評估發展電動機車對於臺灣環境與經濟之影響。模擬情境包括2035年市售機車全面電動化、532能源政策、以及電動機車補助於2021年全面終止。模擬結果顯示，機車電動化搭配532政策在2025年可達到1.08百萬噸的減碳效益，並完成運輸部門減碳目標的43.22％。其次由總體經濟的模擬結果可知，發展電動機車可帶動GDP每年成長0.03-0.05％，至2025年共創造5百億元GDP貢獻，電動機車與電池交換站產業之勞動需求平均每年可成長40％以上，但燃油機車之勞動需求每年下降約1％。惟電池國產化為未來經濟能否持續增長的關鍵，故建議政府仍應加強扶植國內電池廠商，吸引電動機車業者改用國產電池，創造更高的產業附加價值。其次，電動機車與電池交換站產業在未來皆需勞力投入，雖導致燃油機車產業勞動需求減少，但對總體就業仍具正向影響，因此建議政府應加強輔導傳統機車行升級轉型，並協助提升相關從業人員在轉型期間所需的技能與資金。最後，建議參照電動機車市售價格來調整政府的補助金額，以協助電池國產化為政策目標，加速提升整體電動機車產業的附加價值。

關鍵字

電動機車；可計算一般均衡模型；投入產出分析；減碳效益；經濟影響評估

並列摘要

As the effects of global warming accelerate rapidly, the development of electric vehicles has become one of the mitigation strategies for governments to reduce the emissions from transportation sector. Although Taiwan is not a member of the United Nations, it follows the global trend of carbon reduction to promote the electric motorcycle (EM) industry. Taiwan began its EM research and development in 1995 by the Industrial Technology Research Institute, but EM’s rapid growth era came in 2015 when Gogoro introduced its first motorcycle, which also led Taiwan to adopt the battery-swapping system for charging batteries. The impact of EMs is not only improving the quality of the environment, but also adding values to the overall economy. Therefore, this study reviews literature and conducts interviews with manufacturers and industrial associations to collect data. The Input-Output Table for 2011 and Computable General Equilibrium Model are adopted to evaluate the impact of EM development on Taiwan’s environment and economy. Policy simulations are conducted based on the scenarios on the sales ban of gas-powered motorcycles by 2035, renewable energy transition plan of 50-30-20 by 2025, and phasing out of EM subsidy by 2021. The simulation results show that the motorcycle electronification policy along with 50-30-20 energy transition plan can achieve carbon reduction of 1.08 million tons by 2025 and accomplish 43.22% of carbon reduction target in the transportation sector. Furthermore, the development of EM will increase 0.03-0.05% of GDP every year and create totally 50 billion NTD in GDP by 2025. However, the labor demand in the gas-powered motorcycle industry will drop 1% per year. The key of GDP growth lies in whether domestic-made batteries can grow. Moreover, the increasing labor demand in the EM and battery swap station industry will overcome the decrease in the gas-powered motorcycle industry. The positive overall effect suggests that the government should help the gas-powered motorcycle industry transform and provide reskilling and financial assistance to the workforce during the process. In the long term, the government should adjust the subsidy program based on the price changes of EM and support the use of domestic-made batteries to further the acceleration of value-added in this industry.