蔬菜在國人日常飲食消費中占極重要的地位,而台灣地區的蔬菜由於氣候因素,常常發生蔬菜價格波動的現象。若欲使得農民有合理的利潤且維持消費者的購買力,如何調節蔬菜的供需穩定且維持穩定的批發價格是值得研究的課題。 由於蔬菜價格之變動可直接反映出蔬菜供給與消費的情況,本文主要探討台灣地區之蔬菜價格。選擇完全採用電腦拍賣制度,成交價格最為公正的台北農產運銷股份有限公司之第一與第二果菜批發市場之拍賣交易資料探討蔬菜的價格和氣候因素關係。實證資料以2002年至2009年葉菜類、花果菜類、根莖類、菇菌類、醃製類、進口蔬菜與總蔬菜等七大類具代表性的蔬菜類別為主,並利用最小平方法迴歸模型作為實證模型估計方法,探討氣候因素對台灣地區主要蔬菜消費地之蔬菜價格的影響效果。
Vegetables play a very important role in the daily diet consumptions for the Taiwanese people. However, due to climatic factors, vegetable prices often fluctuate. In order to maintain reasonable profits for farmers and purchasing power of consumers, how to adjust supply and demand of vegetables and to maintain stability of wholesale prices is a subject worthwhile to study. Due to the fact that the changes in vegetable prices can be a direct reflection of the vegetable supply and demand and consumption as well, this thesis focuses on the prices of vegetables in Taiwan. I use the transaction prices from the Taipei Agricultural Products Marketing Co., Ltd. to explore the relationships between the wholesale prices of vegetables and fruits and climatic factors. The empirical data are from 2002 to 2009 and include seven vegetable categories, (1) leaf vegetables, (2) flower and fruit vegetables, (3) root vegetables, (4) mushrooms, (5) preserved vegetables, (6) imported vegetables, and (7) overall and other vegetables. The ordinary least squares (OLS) method is used to forecast how climatic factors affect the consumption prices of vegetables in Taiwan.