颱風對於臺灣香蕉災損的關鍵因子分析與調適策略

Critical Factors of Typhoon Disasters on Banana Production and Adaptation Strategies in Taiwan

毛宏崴(HONG-WEI MAO)

指導教授 ： 張靜貞

國立臺灣大學/生物資源暨農學院/農業經濟學系/碩士(2022年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU202201556

摘要

臺灣農業氣象災害中對於香蕉產量影響最大的來自颱風，香蕉為我國種植面積第二大的水果，在市場上具有極高的競爭優勢，為保障蕉農收益之穩定，政府近年來推出香蕉保險，因此，本研究蒐集全臺灣十七個縣市自2009年至2018年的資料，建立香蕉的颱風損失函數，探討災損之特性，研析受到颱風影響的主要致災因子。實證模型除考慮損失數量、損失面積、產量損率及面積損率四面向外，並區分雨量與風速門檻值對於損失之影響，計量分析結果發現，「單日最強降雨量」、「風速門檻值20公尺」與「最大瞬時風速」等3項颱風特徵對於香蕉損害有顯著的影響。
研究結果也顯示，因過去颱風都恰好與香蕉的生長期重疊，故損害以葉片受損和植株倒伏為主，需多加關注短時間強降雨和強風的影響，加強預警。颱風行徑以東部往西部居多，但東部的災損反而較西部為少，且中南部比北部嚴重，故必須加強承災的能力，包含調節產季與種植品種、增加防災措施與提升農民防災意識等，並適度調整香蕉植株保險之風速門檻值，以促進此保險計畫之推動。

關鍵字

颱風 ； 最小平方估計法 ； 風速門檻值 ； 損失函數 ； 農業保險

並列摘要

Among the agricultural meteorological disasters in Taiwan, typhoons have the greatest impact on banana production. Bananas are the second largest fruit in Taiwan and have a very high competitive advantage in the market. In order to ensure the stability of banana farmers' income, the government has introduced bananas insurance program in recent years. Therefore, this research collects data in 17 counties and cities from 2009 to 2018 in Taiwan, establishes the typhoon loss function of bananas, discusses the characteristics of disaster losses, and identifies the major risk factors from typhoons disasters. The empirical model not only considers the loss quantity, loss area, yield loss rate and area loss rate, but also distinguishes the influence of rainfall and wind speed threshold on losses. The empirical results indicate that "maximum rainfall per day", "20 meters wind speed per second", and "maximum instantaneous wind speed" are the three significant factors on banana damages.
The results also suggest that because the past typhoons happened to overlap with the growing period of bananas, the damage was mainly caused by leaf damage and plant lodging, and more attention should be paid to the impact of short-term heavy rainfall and strong winds. Most typhoons occur in the east to the west, but the disaster damage in the east is less than that in the west, and the central and southern parts are more serious than the north. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the ability of banana farmers to mitigate impacts from typhoon disasters, such as adjusting the production season and planting varieties, increasing disaster prevention measures, raising farmers’ awareness on disaster prevention preparedness, and improving the wind speed thresholds design to promote the banana insurance program.

並列關鍵字

Typhoon ； Least Squares Method ； Wind Speed Threshold ； Loss Function ； Agricultural Insurance

參考文獻

中央氣象局，2012。「101年天氣分析與預報研討會」。臺北市：中央氣象局，（https://conf.cwb.gov.tw/media/cwb_past_conferences/101/paper05.pdf）（2012/09/17）。

丘媚萍，2011。「氣候變遷與臺灣農業部門氣候災害經濟損失之關聯性研究」。碩士論文，國立中興大學應用經濟學系所，臺中市。

交通部中央氣象局，2021。「颱風百問全書」，（https://www.cwb.gov.tw/V8/C/K/Encyclopedia/typhoon/typhoon.pdf?v=20200330）（2022/05/01）。

全國法規資料庫，2020。「農業保險法」，（https://law.moj.gov.tw/LawClass/LawAll.aspx?pcode=M0070072）（2020/05/27）。

全國法規資料庫，2021。「香蕉收入保險試辦及保險費補助辦法」，（https://law.moj.gov.tw/LawClass/LawAll.aspx?pcode=M0070080）（2021/10/05）。