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  • 學位論文

因應氣候變遷之供水系統調適能力建構與監測修正調適路徑之研究

udy on Climate Change Adaptive Capacity Building of Water Supply System and Monitoring and Revising of Adaptation Pathway

指導教授 : 童慶斌

摘要


面對全球氣候變遷所帶來的風險,各國近年來紛紛發展出各自的調適能力建構與分析流程,包括分析問題、評估風險、提出解決方案、檢討與修正等步驟,以系統性的方式逐步分析氣候變遷帶來的風險,並嘗試針對風險來源提出調適策略與行動,將氣候變遷帶來風險降至最低。我國科技部「氣候變遷調適科技整合研究計畫(TaiCCAT)」,曾參考國內外氣候變遷調適行動建構流程,提出TaiCCAT氣候調適六步驟,分別為(1)界定問題與設定目標、(2)評估與分析現況風險、(3)評估與分析未來風險、(4)界定與評估調適選項、(5)規劃與執行調適路徑、(6)監測與修正調適路徑。上述步驟目前已受到部分研究機構與縣市政府採用,做為評估氣候變遷風險以及建構調適能力之參考流程。然而,現行TaiCCAT氣候調適六步驟的整體架構已經建構完成,但在執行細節上仍有許多可進一步強化之空間。本研究以TaiCCAT調適六步驟為核心,首先將以資訊流的方式分析六大步驟的細部流程,以資訊銜接的角度探討六大步驟產出資訊之相互關係,進而提出各步驟的建議改善方向。 本研究針對六大步驟中的第三、第五與第六步驟進行強化,分別建構大氣環流模式之挑選方法、調適路徑建構方法、以及調適監測與修正之建議流程,希望能強化六大步驟之內涵。在第三步驟大氣環流模式之挑選上,本研究結合單一氣象站挑選流程與區域氣象站分區結果,針對台灣地區的氣象站予以分類後劃分為10個氣候分區,並配合單一氣象站之大氣環流模式挑選結果選出各區域適用之環流模式。在第五步驟調適路徑的建構上,計畫評核術(Program Evaluation and Review Technique,簡稱PERT)則被用於建構氣候變遷調適路徑。在第六步驟部分,本研究則提出監測與修正流程。最後,本研究以新竹頭前溪供水系統做為示範案例,將修改過後之TaiCCAT調適六步驟運用於該地區之水資源系統,以探討該方法實際運用於區域水資源風險評估與調適能力建構之可行性。

並列摘要


In order to face the challenge of climate change, many counties have developed the climate adaptive capacity building processes. Most adaptive capacity building processes start from problem identification and risk assessment, and then attempt to propose adaptation strategies to cope with climate change uncertainty. However, the monitoring, reporting and evaluation (MRE) process to adaptation strategies is also important under the high uncertainty of climate change. The Taiwan integrated research program on climate change adaptation technology (TaiCCAT), funded by the ministry of science and technology, have reviewed the adaptive processes from different countries, and proposed TaiCCAT six-steps. The TaiCCAT six-steps include (1) Identifying problems and objectives, (2) Assessing current risk, (3) Assessing future risk, (4) Identifying and assessing adaptation options, 5. Planning and implementing adaptation pathway, (6) Monitoring and modifying. The six-steps have been used by several research institutes and city/county governments to assess risk of climate change and build adaptation action plans. The framework of TaiCCAT six-steps have been constructed, but several issues are still left for in-depth discussion. The TaiCCAT six-steps is uses as the core part of this research, and the skill of information flow analysis is applied to analysis the sub-processes of six-steps from the angle of inputs, tools, and outputs of each step. In this study the improvements for six-steps are proposed after the information flow analysis. In this reaearch, three procedures are established separately to support the original processes of step 3, step 5 and step 6 of TaiCCAT six-steps: 1. GCM selection, 2. adaptation pathway building, 3. monitoring and revising of adaptation pathway. The procedure of GCM selection consists of GCM applicability ranking process for single weather station and the result of climate zonation. The weather stations in Taiwan were classified into 10 climate zones, and GCM suggestion list for each zone was generated according the result of GCM ranking for single weather station. The skill of program evaluation and review technique (PERT) was used to arrange the schedule of adaptation actions, and build adaptation pathway map for step 5. The procedures of adaptive monitoring and revising of adaptation pathway was proposed to monitor and revise implementation of adaptation for step 6. To test the precedures proposed in this study, the Touchien River water supply system is used as the study area to assess climate change risk and build adaptation capacity with TaiCCAT six-steps.

參考文獻


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被引用紀錄


李苑華(2017)。韌性社區供水系統氣候風險評估與調適能力建構方法之發展〔博士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342%2fNTU201800155
陳沛芫(2017)。韌性社區氣候風險評估暨調適決策之方法發展〔博士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342%2fNTU201704303
田育全(2017)。結合季長期天氣展望發展乾旱預警與支援決策系統〔碩士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342%2fNTU201700619

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