中國民眾國際移民意願研究～一項東亞民主研究調查資料的分析

隨著經濟的穩定發展，中國大陸民眾的移民意願並未隨之降溫，這個現象與傳統的移民理論理論背道而馳。移民的新古典主義經濟學認為，改善自身的經濟狀況是移民者最普遍的目的。然而，若套用在中國大陸經濟發展日益蓬勃的現今，可能就無法充分解釋中國大陸的移民率不減反增的現象。可能的原因有二，其一，大陸民眾對實際經濟狀況的評估並非表面上那麼高，較好的發展機會依舊是想要移民的原因；其二，若大陸民眾想要移民的主因並非是對經濟環境的不滿，那麼對政治環境的質疑便可能是最主要的因素。因此，本文將聚焦於經濟性因素和政治性因素兩個層面，分析二者對中國大陸民眾的移民意願分別有何影響，以釐清導致大陸民眾在經濟發展較佳的情況下仍有高度移民意願的真實原因。由於目前針對中國大陸的移民研究中仍較為缺乏對國內政治因素的探討，因此納入這項考量也將會是本文的主要研究貢獻。為了研究中國大陸民眾國際移民意願的影響因素，本文使用第三波亞洲民主動態調查（Asian Barometer Survey）資料進行量化分析，以經濟性因素和政治性因素為主要自變項，以基本人口學因素為控制變項，並以民眾的移民意願作為依變項。具體而言，本文將經濟性動機分為對國家經濟狀況的評估、對家庭經濟狀況的評估、人力資本、社會資本和生活滿意度；政治性動機則分為參與選舉的程度、討論選舉的程度、政治興趣、對政府控制腐敗能力的評估、對國家法治的評估、對政體的滿意度和政治資本。統計結果顯示，在經濟性動機中，對國家經濟狀況的評估、人力資本仍會顯著影響到民眾的國際移民意願，然而家庭經濟狀況、社會資本、生活滿意度則不然。而在政治性動機中，參與選舉的程度、政治興趣、對國家法治的評估、對政體的滿意度、政治資本都會影響到民眾的國際移民意願。上述結果可以總結成兩個現象，「政大於經」以及「國大於家」，亦即，政治性動機是影響民眾是否想要移民他國的主要考量，而在經濟性動機中，只有國家層次的經濟狀況會成為民眾評估的依據，偏向個人層面的因素則較不會影響民眾的移民意願。

關鍵字

國際移民意願；大陸民眾的移民意願；移民的經濟學理論；移民的結構理論；經濟性因素；政治性因素

並列摘要

With the steady development of the economy, the Chinese migration desire didn't fade away, which is not corresponding to the traditional migration theory. Neoclassical theory believes that ameliorating the current financial situation is the most general purpose for migrators. However, these thoughts cannot fully explain the continuously rising migration rates especially when China’s economy is booming currently. Two probable explanations can be taken into consideration. One is that people’s evaluation of their actuall financial situation is not as optimistic as it may be seen superficially. Better opportunities are still what the migrators want mostly. Another possible reason is that if the dissatisfaction of economy is not the main cause, then questioning the political environment would be. For all the reasons above, this thesis will analyse what affect the migration desire focusing on both economic and political factors, and try to answer where is the migration desire coming from while the economy developing steadily. Because of the lack of political factors in the research of migration, this will be the biggest contribution of this thesis. In order to study the factors of migration desire of Chinese, this thesis uses the third wave data of Asian Barometer Survey to proceed quantitative analysis, with economic factors and political factors as primary independent variables, demographic factors as control variables, and international migration desire as the dependent variable. Specifically, the economic factors include the evaluation of national and family economic condition, human capital, social capital, and life satisfaction; the political factors include the level of participation in election, the level of discussion in election, political interest, the evaluation of government’s ability to control corruption, the evaluation of rule of law, the satisfaction of the regime, and political capital. The statistical analysis result reveals that, among the economic factors, only the evaluation of national economic condition and human capital will influence the desire of migration, yet family economic condition, social capital, and life satisfaction will not. About the political factors, the level of participation in election, political interest, the evaluation of government’s ability to control corruption, the evaluation of rule of law, the satisfaction of the regime, and political capital will all influence the desire of migration. The above results can be concluded into two phenomena, “politics before economics” and “nation before family”. This means that political factors are the main concern to people who want to move to other countries, yet among the economic factors, only at the national level becomes the criteria of how they evaluate their desire, and the factors belong to personal level will less likely to influence their desire to move.

並列關鍵字

International migration desire ； migration desire of Chinese ； Economic Theory of Migration ； Structural Theory of Migration ； economic factors ； political factors

參考文獻

中華人民共和國國務院新聞辦公室（2016）。〈China FDI inflow rises 6.4% in 2015〉。http://www.scio.gov.cn/32618/Document/1462528/1462528.htm。2016/8/25檢索。

Kuhn, Randall S. (2005). “The determinants of family and individual migration: A case-study of rural Bangladesh.” Paper presented at the Research Program on Population Processes, Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado at Boulder, Bloulder, July.

Ajzen, I., Kuhl, J. and Beckmann, J. (1985). From Intentions to Actions: A Theory of Planned Behavior. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.

Alford, Robert R. (1998). The Craft of Inquiry: Theories, Methods, Evidence. New York: Oxford University Press.

Baeck, L. (1993). Post-War Development Theories and Practice. Paris: UNESCO and International Social Science Council.

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中國民眾國際移民意願研究～一項東亞民主研究調查資料的分析

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