臺灣人口結構變動影響糧食需求預測的可計算一般均衡分析

A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Taiwan's Demographic Changes on Food Demand Forecast

官沂鴻(I-Hung Kuan)

指導教授 ： 張靜貞

國立臺灣大學/生物資源暨農學院/農業經濟學研究所/碩士(2022年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU202201624

摘要

臺灣人口結構在過去數十年來發生很大的變化，過去糧食需求之預測大多採用計量方法以人口總數與所得、物價、市場等經濟因素進行長期推估，少有文章針對人口結構改變之影響進行分析。本研究透過可計算一般均衡分析模型，將糧食需求分為六大類，檢視人口結構變動對臺灣糧食需求預測以及對總體經濟及農糧相關部門的影響。推估結果顯示，由於少子化、高齡化、性別結構變動等因素，倘國人實際攝食需求不變，至2050年，人口結構變動將導致六大類糧食需求皆下降，分別為：全穀根莖類16%、油脂與堅果種子類21%、豆魚肉蛋類20%、奶類11%、蔬菜類9%及水果類12%，且下降的速度將逐年遞增。本研究更進一步將糧食需求變動率作為外生衝擊值納入模型中，推估對各產業部門所衍生之連鎖影響，結果顯示農糧生產所需之上游原物料部門、中游的加工部門、以及下游的服務部門如餐飲、零售、批發等均呈現相反之正成長趨勢，而進口量、產出、產值變動率、就業量則皆呈現負成長趨勢，顯示人口結構的變動確實是糧食需求預測的重要因素，進而衝擊農糧相關產業部門。

關鍵字

可計算一般均衡模型 ； 糧食需求預測 ； 人口結構變動

並列摘要

In the past, most studies of food demand forecasting focus on economic factors such as income, prices, and market. However, few articles included the impact of demographic changes. This study provides a case study of the impact of demographic dynamics on the changes of food demand in Taiwan by using the computable general equilibrium model. The impact of demographic changes on the food and agriculture related sectors (e.g, raw materials sector, processing sector, service sector) are also simulated by the six major food groups. The simulation results show that due to declining birthrate, aging population, and changes in gender structure, by 2050, if the actual food intake demand of Taiwanese people remains unchanged, demographic changes will lead to a decline in the demand for six major categories of food, namely: whole grains 16%, oils, fats, nuts and seeds21%, Legumes, fish, eggs, meat and their products 20%, dairy products 11%, vegetables 9% and fruits 12%, with an increasing negative rate of change over the years. This study further incorporates the estimated rate of change in food demand as exogeneous shocks of consumer preference. The results show that the induced effects from population dynamics on food demand will result in an upward trend in the upstream raw material sectors, mid-stream processing sectors, and downstream service sectors such as catering, retail, wholesales. However, the effects on import, production, prices and employment are all negative. These results highlight that demographic changes are a vital factor affecting food demand forecasting as well as the food and agricultural related sectors.

並列關鍵字

Computable General Equilibrium Model ； Food Demand Forecasting ； Demographic Changes

參考文獻

中文部分

史常亮、金彥平(2013)，〈中國糧食供給與需求狀況變遷：1978-2010〉，《經濟研究參考》（北京），第56期，2013年。

行政院農業委員會統計室 (2020)，《糧食供需年報》，臺北：行政院農業委員會。

行政院衛生福利部 (2018)，《每日飲食指南》，臺北：行政院衛生福利部國民健康署。

辛良傑、李鵬輝、範玉枝（2018），「人口年齡結構變化對中國食物消費的影響」，《農業工程學報》，2018，34(14)：296－302。