臺灣民主化對民眾傳統權威價值取向變遷之影響～2001-2019 五波調查分析

現代化理論主張經濟發展隨之帶來政治民主，但受到儒家傳統文化影響的亞洲國家與民主發展之間的關聯性在近代爭辯不休。受到儒家文化影響深遠的臺灣，民主化進程中，儒家傳統價值觀是否被解構？對民主鞏固階段造成何種影響？臺灣民眾若干價值取向是否因社會文化的轉變在上產生變化？本研究以亞洲民主動態調查（Asian Barometer Survey）2001 年至 2019 年橫跨二十年、共五波調查問卷數據為主，以二元勝算對數模型（binary logit model）進行分析，考驗人口學變數、社會學變數、以及政治學變數中各變項對於臺灣民眾傳統權威價值取向的解釋力。傳統價值權威取向的概念型定義是基於儒家價值所擴散出的「天地君親師」的垂直型權威意識形態為貫穿，分類五種取向包括相信命運、服從權威、集體主義、關係取向、屈己和諧。實證研究外另輔以半結構式質化訪談，以求更深入探究價值變遷脈絡因素。實證研究發現，臺灣社會中男性、年齡較大者、教育程度較低者，普遍較傾向具有傳統權威價值取向。在傳統權威價值取向變遷方面雖呈現逐年遞減趨勢，但民眾具有集體主義與關係取向價值觀仍相對趨強，且教育程度愈高者反而愈傾向具關係取向。越接近現代，臺灣人反而比從前更加相信命運，無關世代差異，臺灣人普遍在年紀增長後都會比年輕時更加相信宿命論。當總體變數由執政黨取代時，民進黨執政時期較國民黨執政時期較民眾不具有傳統權威價值取向，但解釋力不如個體層次。綜合訪談結果後發現，後物質主義價值觀的臺灣年輕世代，若面臨個體尊嚴（個人經濟與階級自主權）與集體尊嚴（國家共同體價值）的雙重認同喪失的狀態下，臺灣民主脆弱性較易顯現，民主化易落入悲觀期待陷阱中（Trap of Pessimistic Expectations），還框架在某些儒家傳統權威價值將是不利民主鞏固的引線。

關鍵字

民主化；儒家文化；傳統權威價值；現代化理論；後物質主義

並列摘要

Recent years have seen a great deal of interest in the extent to which Confucian values or Confucianism, inhibit a country’s acceptance of liberal democratic values. However, Confucianism as a Chinese cultural tradition remains, and it is expressed in various aspects of the social life in Taiwan. Confucian values, which place a high value on deference to authority, and the main components of Confucianism including fatalism, familism, hierarchical collectivism,social harmony and relationship orientation based on authority compliance. In this study, we review theoretical arguments for why and how Confucian values would decrease public support for democratization in Taiwan, and we use the data from the Asian Barometer Survey (ABS) to estimate models of the latest data from 2001 to 2019. At the same time, we conduct interviews of the various generations to understand for what reasons make pleople change their values. Our important findings indicate that some Confucian values s remain strong in democratic Taiwanese society, especially relationship orientation and fatalism. However, age, gender and education show significant influcnce on Confucianl values which supporting modernization theory. Overall, the micro-level factors showed stronger explanatory power than the macro-level result (the year the survey and ruling party). This study concludes by discussing how young generation rather than elders might affect by Confucian values in Taiwanese society where postmaterialistic values are becoming more important. While younger generation lack the demands for dignity or recognition of identity which cannot simply satisfied by economic means, it is more likely that they fall into “the trap of pessimistic expectations,” an expectation-driven failure may precipitate the deconsolidation of democracy.