以個體為基礎模型預測臺北市營造業使用再生建材意願之研究

Predicting Contractors’ Intention to Use Recycled Construction Material in Taipei City with Agent-Based Model

黎曉琳(Hio-Lam Lai)

指導教授 ： 馬鴻文

國立臺灣大學/工學院/環境工程學研究所/碩士(2021年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU202104093

摘要

人們需要都市建築物來滿足自身的生活需求。都市化仍然是世界未來的趨勢，在這個趨勢下人們就會興建更多建築物來迎合自身的需求，社會對天然建材的需求亦越來越多，龐大的自然資源開採會對環境造成不可逆轉的破壞。永續發展已經成為世界重要的研究領域，若可以提高營造業使用再生建材之意願，有助再生建材使用量的提升，將能夠減緩世界自然資源的壓力，同時可以促進二次物料市場的發展，提升營造廢棄物回收率，減少土地壓力。
本研究利用Agent-Based Model結合計劃行為理論，摸擬營造業使用再生建材的行為，比起以往研究模擬再生建材的使用，Agent-Based Model能夠從更細微的角度出發，本研究考慮到市民與市民之間的影響、市民對營造業的影響以及每間營造業對彼此之間的影響，這些影響造成每間營造業使用再生建材意願的變化，使研究結果將更貼切現實情況。在Agent-Based Model中加入計劃行為理論能夠更準確地預測人類的行為，包括營造業的行為，使本研究可以從經濟、社會、環境三個層面來探討影響營造業使用再生建材行為的因子。本研究將模擬分析臺北市營造業未來50年使用再生建材意願的趨勢情況，探討三個因子對營造業使用再生建材意願的影響，包括再生建材價格偏好、社會規範及營造業內部的環境意識等，也會討論對傳統建材課稅之經濟政策與環境教育政策對營造業使用再生建材意願的影響。
本研究的目的為立志找出影響營造業使用再生建材的重要因子，並在不同的經濟和環境教育政策組合中找出能夠提高營造業使用再生建材意願的最優政策組合。望這些因子和政策可以提供給臺北市決策者參考，在決策者為提高臺北市營造業使用再生建材意願進行決策時能以這些因子和政策組合作為施力點，提升決策效率。
研究結果顯示，臺北市營造業在2019年至2040年時使用再生建材意願持續增加，而2041年以後意願將維持穩定狀態，而再生建材價格偏好、營造業內部的環境意識和社會規範皆對營造業使用再生建材意願有重要影響，再生建材價格偏好與社會規範因子對提升臺北市營造業使用再生建材意願具有即時性效果，而營造業環境意識因子需要一定年時的積累才能使臺北市營造業平均使用再生建材意願獲得提升效果，在有效提升臺北市營造業使用再生建材意願之政策組合方面，加拿大魁北克省對傳統建材徵收14.975%稅率之經濟政策與日本環境教育政策為最優的調控政策組合。

關鍵字

Agent-Based Model ； 再生建材 ； 永續都市 ； 環境意識 ； 計劃行為理論

並列摘要

Rising global urbanization is one of the defining trends of the 21st century, the urban population will keep growing. People will consume far more natural resources to meet their own needs. For example, more building will be built by people for living and for entertainment, which drive global demand for natural resources. Human demand on the Earth exceeds nature's capacity to regenerate now, over-exploitation of natural resources by humans has long-lasting consequences for the future provision of natural resources. Sustainable development in construction industry is a way to handle this situation. The more constructors use recycled construction materials, the more resource efficiency perform, which also promote the development of the secondary material market and waste recycling.
This research will use an Agent-Based Model combined with Theory of Planned-Behavior method to model the use of recycled construction material of construction industry on Taipei. Agent-Based Model, a bottom-up method to consider and figure out how clients and constructors interact with each other and the results affect to use recycled construction material of contractors, which make the model result more closed to the real world. Agent-Based Model combined with Theory of Planned-Behavior can predict human behavior accurately, also contractor behavior. This paper will discuss three factors, include economic factor, social norm and environmental awareness that affect the use of recycled construction material of contractors. Economic policy and education policy effect will also discuss at this paper.
The purpose of this paper is to find out the trend of the use of recycled construction material of contractors in Taipei and the important factor to affect the use of recycled construction material of contractors. Also, the best policy combined will be mentioned. Those may help Taipei governor to increase recycled construction material usage efficiently.
As the result, the trend of use recycled construction material of contractors in Taipei is increasing, but will be stable in 2041. Price factor, social norm factor and environmental awareness factor are both affect the use of recycled construction material of contractors. For the best way to increase the use recycled construction material of contractors in Taipei, Canada tax policy with Japan environmental education policy is the best policy combination.

並列關鍵字

Agent-based Model ； recycled material ； sustainable city ； environmental awareness ； Theory of Planned-Behavior

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