麻六甲海峽的現況與發展－以新加坡與馬來西亞的港口貨櫃量做比較

The Past and the Future for Malacca Straits Based on the number of Container Ships in Singapore Port and Malaysia Port

何靖國(Ching-Kuo Ho)

指導教授 ： 羅竹平

國立臺灣大學/生物資源暨農學院/農業經濟學研究所/碩士(2017年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201701187

摘要

在全球貿易發展下，跨國運輸在全世界都隨時隨地發生，其中透過海運運輸因為成本較低而是目前最常使用的方式。麻六甲海峽坐落於東南亞一帶，目前有非常多的船舶航行於此，而麻六甲海峽內的新加坡港為世界上最繁忙的港口之一，新加坡也因港口繁榮使其轉口貿易興盛帶動經濟起飛，但同位於麻六甲海峽的馬來西亞港口貨櫃量卻遠不及新加坡港。
本研究將探討新加坡與馬來西亞的港口貨櫃量走勢，了解新加坡與馬來西亞都位於麻六甲海峽上但其港口貨櫃量有明顯的差異。再透過香港與中國深圳經濟特區的案例，了解馬來西亞目前已重點開發的依斯干達經濟特區、巴生港第三港口與中國出資興建的皇京港能否複製深圳經濟特區的成功。最後並以馬來西亞與新加坡港口的平均成長率去預測未來新加坡與馬來西亞港口貨櫃量與人均貨櫃量，並以香港和深圳經濟特區的案例評估未來馬來西亞能否因為其港口貨櫃量的增長而帶動經濟成長。
本研究結果顯示，未來若2025年馬來西亞港口擴建與興建計畫完成後，馬來西亞的貨櫃裝卸量約占新加坡的95%。而若2025年中國100%轉移其貢獻於新加坡的貨櫃轉運量於馬來西亞下，則馬來西亞的貨櫃裝卸量則約為新加坡的3倍，此時馬來西亞的人均貨櫃量將達新加坡的59%。透過香港與深圳經濟特區的案例發現當深圳的人均貨櫃量從香港的20%成長至香港的77%，深圳的人均收入也從香港的16%成長至香港的59%，人均貨櫃量與人均收入具有一定的正相關。因此，本研究結果預估若馬來西亞未來人均貨櫃量達到本研究所預設對馬來西亞最有利的情境下，即中國轉移100%貢獻於新加坡的轉運量至馬來西亞，則馬來西亞的人均貨櫃量與人均收入都會上升，對馬來西亞的經濟將有正面影響。

關鍵字

麻六甲海峽 ； 貨櫃量 ； 港口發展

並列摘要

Under the development of global trade, transnational transport is very common in the world, which is the most commonly used way through sea shipment because of the low cost. The Malacca Strait is located in the area of Southeast Asia. There are many ships through this strait. Singapore Port is one of the world's busiest ports. Singapore have a good performance for economic due to port prosperity to re-export business driven economic take-off. Malaysian port container is far less than the port of Singapore though it is also located in Malacca Strait.
This study explores the trend of port shipments between Singapore and Malaysia to understand the difference in the number of containers between Singapore and Malaysia port. Through the case of Hong Kong and Shenzhen, China Special Economic Zone, to understand Malaysia's current focus on the development of the Iskandar Special Economic Zone, Port Klang third port and Melaka Gateway can copy the success of Shenzhen Special Economic Zone. Finally, the average growth rate of ports in Hong Kong to predict the future of Singapore and Malaysia port container volume and per capita container volume, and Hong Kong and Shenzhen case to assess whether the future of Malaysia due to the growth of port containers to drive its economic growth.
The results of this study show that Malaysia's container shipments account for about 95% of Singapore after the completion of the expansion and construction of Malaysia's ports in 2025. If China completely relocated its container shipments to Singapore in 2025, Malaysia's cargo handling capacity was three times that of Singapore, while Malaysia's per capita container volume would reach 59% of Singapore. Through the case of Hong Kong and Shenzhen, when Shenzhen's per capita container volume grew from 20% in Hong Kong to 77% in Hong Kong, Shenzhen's per capita income grew from 16% in Hong Kong to 59% in Hong Kong. Per capita container volume and per capita income partly have positive correlation. As a result, the results of this study suggest that Malaysia's per capita container volume and per capita income will rise if Malaysia's future per capita container volume reaches the most favorable scenario in Malaysia, which will have a positive impact on Malaysia.

並列關鍵字

Malacca Straits ； Container Volume ； Port Development

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