洗錢防制與打擊資恐及其效果之實證研究

本論文從法規架構、國際規範、執行現況探討洗錢防制與打擊資恐，並透過實證分析洗錢防制與打擊資恐的執行效果。實證研究時間自2011年至2019年共九年，包含臺灣、日本、香港、英國、德國與荷蘭六個國家的數據資料，研究數據主要有反洗錢指數與疑似洗錢活動通報數量。實證研究方法為追蹤資料分析，並以反洗錢指數進行動態趨勢分析各國洗錢週期性。研究結果發現，臺灣相對先進國家的疑似洗錢活動通報數量或密度均較少，整體而言，研究中六個國家趨勢都是往好的方向進步。另外，發現臺灣與荷蘭反洗錢指數沒有週期性現象，而香港週期性為3年，日本、英國週期性為4年，德國為3-4年。最後，本研究利用追蹤資料固定效果模型發現，疑似洗錢活動通報數量與反洗錢指數關係為二項式的倒Ｕ型拋物線，亦即隨著反洗錢指數下降，疑似洗錢活動通報數量反而增加，但當整體反洗錢指數低於4.49時，疑似洗錢通報數量會隨之減少。而這些研究結果可提供政府當局在洗錢防制與打擊資恐相關政策的參考。

關鍵字

洗錢；反洗錢指數；疑似洗錢通報數量；追蹤資料；週期性

並列摘要

This thesis focuses on anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism（AML/CFT） from the legal framework, international norms, current implementation status, and analyzes the implementation effects of AML/CFT through empirical analysis. The empirical research time spans nine years from 2011 to 2019, and includes data from six countries including Taiwan, Japan, Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the Netherlands. The research data mainly includes anti-money laundering index（AML Index）and Suspicious Activity Reports（SARs）. The empirical research method is panel data analysis, and the AML Index is used to analyze the dynamic trend of money laundering cycles in various countries. The study found that the number and density of SARs in Taiwan are lower than in other developed countries. Overall, the countries studied are trending towards good progress. In addition, it is found that the AML Index of Taiwan and the Netherlands has no periodicity, while the cycle of Hong Kong is 3 years, Japan and the United Kingdom are 4 years, and Germany is 3-4 years. Finally, this study uses fixed effects panel data model to find that the relationship between the number of SARs and the AML Index is a binomial inverted U-shaped parabola, that is, as the AML Index declines, the number of SARs increases instead. When the overall AML Index is lower than 4.49, the number of SARs will decrease accordingly. The results of these studies can provide government authorities with policy references for AML/CFT.