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  • 學位論文

蒙古國「第三鄰國」政策對外戰略的起源與發展: 中國因素影響之分析

The Origins and Development of the “Third Neighbor Policy” of Mongolia: A Prospective of the China Factor

指導教授 : 張登及

摘要


蒙古國「第三鄰國」政策90年代正式提出以來,還缺乏全面描述該政策的起源、內容以及發展過程的文獻。本研究注重蒙古90年代起「第三鄰國」政策提倡至今,並特別專門分析了2010年修正的《蒙古國國家安全構想》和2011年修正的《蒙古國外交政策構想》之中關於「第三鄰國」政策規定。筆者試圖解釋蒙古國為何採取「第三鄰國」政策以及該政策對蒙重要性,並以國際關係理論中的柔性制衡(soft balancing)概念說明「第三鄰國」政策。分析蒙中關係的起源及發展過程時,中國因素對「第三鄰國」政策的影響相當顯著,關鍵就在於蒙古國如何以柔性制衡應對兩大強鄰。 本文主要使用蒙古官方與學術界文獻,評估蒙、中、美、俄、日等其他國家對「第三鄰國」政策的回應。研究結果筆者說明「第三鄰國」政策不是針對兩鄰,更不是針對中國的硬性制衡(hard balancing)政策,而是和平時期的蒙古國積極外交戰略的一部分。「第三鄰國」政策符合蒙古國情,可成為安全保障之重要戰略。蒙古國力圖發展以及鞏固該政策的態度相當一致。蒙古國是夾在兩個世界級強權中間的小國,又是內陸國,某種程度上是較孤獨的國家。為了減緩地緣不利因素,蒙古國不得不採取積極外交政策,特別是第三鄰國。「第三鄰國」政策各領域落實各不同,政治、安全、文化領域的落實相當有效,但經貿甚至投資領域的落實程度較差,未來可能需要蒙方更加注重。

並列摘要


This thesis aims to shed a light on the formulation, content and developments of Mongolia’s “third neighbor” policy since it began to formally be implemented in 1990s. This research analyzes the clauses of Mongolia’s National Security Concept and Foreign Policy Concept related to “third neighbor” policy focusing on the policy developments from 1990s to date. The author explains why Mongolia formulated this policy and why it is important for Mongolia. The author also contends that soft balancing is the theoretical ground for the Mongolia’s “third neighbor” policy. Moreover, this thesis explains how Mongolia-Sino relations and its developments affect so-called “third neighbor” policy as well as how Mongolia balances its two neighbors’ interest through the policy. Thesis mainly used the Mongolia official and academic literature, evaluation of Mongolia, Russia, Japan, United States, and other countries responding to the “third neighbor” policy. Conclusion shows that the “third neighbor” policy is not aimed at the “two neighbors”, but not for China’s hard balancing policy, as a part of Mongolia’s peaceful diplomatic strategy. The “third neighbor” policy is an important policy that can be a security guarantee for Mongolia consistent to the Mongolia’s current situation. In this sense, there is a consensus in Mongolia to fully implement this policy. For a country sandwiched between two global powers, there are high risks to be locked out of international politics and progress. In order to mitigate these risks, Mongolia needs to implement active foreign policy searching for its “third neighbors”. “Third neighbor” policy implementation in various fields, politics, security, culture in the field of implementation phase but even when the effective, economic and trade investment field implementation is poor, in the future may need to pay more attention to Mongolia.

參考文獻


林思臻,「蒙古對中俄外交戰略之研究-以『避險』概念分析(1994-2012)」,國立中興大學國際政治研究所研究生論文,2011年,頁1-170。
陳怡瑾,「權力平衡與中美關係(2000-2012):柔性制衡概念的驗證」,國立台灣大學研究生論文,2014年7月,頁1-159。
于瀟、王浩,「蒙古的戰略抉擇:新鐵路政策的可能暗示」,全球政治評論,特集001(2015),頁1-16。
廖淑馨,「近十年來外蒙古與中國關係的發展」,《中國大陸研究》第43卷4期2000�04,頁27-41
http://www.beijing.mfa.gov.mn/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=198%3A2015-11-16-09-39-08&catid=8%3A2010-02-05-02-22-18&Itemid=67&lang=mn 

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