兩岸政治互信之研究（1992∼2012年）

The Study of Political Mutual Trust Across Taiwan Strait（1992－2012）

陳安國(An-Kuo Chen)

指導教授 ： 張亞中

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/政治學研究所/碩士(2012年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2012.10986

摘要

兩岸從1949年分治迄今已逾六十年，在政治制度、意識型態與生活方式上彼此差距甚大，雖自1987年11月2日臺灣開放民眾赴大陸探親，兩岸開展了密切的交流，但在1995年到2008年上半年期間，由於執政者幾度的反向政治操作，使得雙方互信陷入谷底，兩岸關係幾度瀕臨危險邊緣。2008年5月20日，馬英九總統上任後，主張在「九二共識」的基礎上，儘早恢復協商，並秉持著「正視現實、開創未來；擱置爭議，追求雙贏」的十六字方針，以謀求兩岸的和平共榮。2009年元旦，胡錦濤主席以一席「攜手推動兩岸關係和平發展，同心實現中華民族偉大復興」的講話，呼應馬政府的提議，從經貿、文化到外交、國防等層面，無所不包，其中還直接提及兩岸「軍事互信」的問題。至此，兩岸的互動為突破僵局帶來一片曙光。復以2012年馬英九總統連任成功，延續了兩岸間和解與樂觀的氣氛。
但是，在一片看好之中，仍有隱憂存在。馬政府為避免造成內部的政治爭議，在大陸政策上以「維持現狀」、「先經濟，後政治、軍事」為主軸，於是許多可為兩岸關係奠下良好基礎的積極性工作，如「一個中國」核心議題的解決等，便被擱置下來；而大陸在軍事方面的針對性、國際空間上的緊縮也未因兩岸關係和緩而有所鬆懈。其實，雙方政府都應該要體認到，核心議題的停滯不前，勢將益形加深臺灣與大陸人民的疏離感，為臺海情勢增添了不確定性，對未來兩岸的互信乃至和平穩定發展殊為不利。
因此，本文試圖透過「兩岸互信倡議歷程的回顧」、「影響兩岸互信重大事件透析」、「美、中、臺三邊關係與兩岸內部影響因素探討」及運用「信心建立措施」、「新功能主義」、「社會建構主義」等國際關係理論概念（機制），以探究兩岸政治互信實踐與深化之路徑，期為兩岸政策研究提供更為宏觀的視野。

關鍵字

九二共識 ； 兩岸互信 ； 社會建構主義 ； 信心建立措施 ； 新功能主義

並列摘要

Having being separated for more than sixty years since 1949, the two sides of the Taiwan Strait have differentiated themselves from each other in terms of their political systems, ideologies, and ways of life. Following lifting the ban on visiting relatives in Mainland China by Taiwan government on November 2, 1987; extensive and close exchanges between the two sides had been carried out. Nevertheless, as Taiwan’s political leaders in power moved in opposite direction on their cross-Strait policy from 1995 to the first half of 2008, it had not only undermined the mutual trust of the two sides, but almost led to a breakdown in cross-Strait relations on several occasions. After assuming office on May 20, 2008, President MA, Ying-jeou had advocated resuming talks with China as soon as possible on the basis of the “Consensus of 1992,” seeking peace and prosperity of the two sides by following the guidelines of “facing reality, pioneering a new future, shelving controversies, and pursuing a win-win solution.” On the New Year’s Day of 2009, China’s President HU, Jin-tao responded to Ma administration’s proposal, in his New Year’s Day Address titled “Join Hands to Promote the Peaceful Development of Cross-Straits Relations and Strive with a United Resolve for the Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation,” by referring to issues in all aspects from economy and trade, culture, diplomacy to national defense; issues regarding “military mutual trust” between the two sides were also directly mentioned in the speech. Such interactions between the two sides have definitely brought hope of breaking the current political impasse. Furthermore, President MA, Ying-jeou’s victory over the 2012 re-election also paved the way for a reconciliatory and amiable atmosphere between the two sides.
Although it appeared to be optimistic, there was cause for worry. In order to avoid internal political dispute, MA administration introduced a China policy that aimed to “maintain the status quo” and “deal with the economy first, and politics and military later;” hence many important issues, such as strengthening indentification and resolving the core problem of “one China principle,” that could have laid a sound foundation for improving the cross-Strait relations were left aside. On the other hand, Beijing continued its efforts in military buildup and squeezing Taiwan's international space despite the relationship between these two sides has eased. As a matter of fact, both governments should realize that leaving aside the core issues would definitely lead to more aloofness between people of the two sides and add to the uncertainty of the situations across the Taiwan Strait, which would in turn jeopardize the cross-Strait mutual trust and the steady and peaceful development in the future.
In sum, this study aims to explore the practice and future path of political mutual trust across Taiwan Strait through the “Review of the Course of the Cross-Strait Mutual Trust Proposals,” the “Analysis of the Major Events Impacting the Cross-Strait Mutual Trust,” and the “Exploration of the US-Taiwan-China Tri-lateral Relations and the Internal Influence Factors of the Two Sides,” and by utilizing certain theoretical concepts (mechanisms) of international relations including “Confidence Building Measures (CBMs),” “Neo-functionalism,” and “Social Constructivism,” in an attempt to provide a broader view for future studies on cross-Strait policy.

並列關鍵字

Political Mutual Trust Across Taiwan Strait ； The Consensus of 1992 ； Confidence Building Measures(CBMs) ； Neo-functionalism ； Social Constructivism

參考文獻

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