總體經濟因素與產物保險業的成長

Macroeconomic Factors and Growth of the Non-Life Insurance Industry in Taiwan

楊清榮(Ching Jung)

指導教授 ： 謝德宗

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2011.03427

摘要

本研究目的欲探討總體經濟因素與產物保險市場保費收入的關聯性，並據此擬定下一期保險業務保險公司的營運目標及達成率。資料來源為1982至2009年保險事業發展中心所公佈之產物保險資料，以及美國農業經濟研究服務部公佈的經濟數據。研究方法係使用向量自我迴歸(VAR)來探討各總體經濟因素與產物保險各險種保費之關係。實證結果顯示：
1.下一期的產險保費收入與當期及上一期的國內生產毛額、當期新台幣匯率、當期物價指數、及上一期車輛成長率，呈現正相關。
2.Δ產險保費與Δ物價指數、Δ產險保費與Δ車輛數之間存在領先─落後的因果關係。
3.國內生產毛額成長對產險保費收入成長到第4年達到最高峰。新台幣匯率成長對產險保費收入成長到第2年達到最高峰。
4.而在各險種保費收入與最終消費因素的實證結果顯示：
(1)下一期車險、火險保費成長率與當期的消費支出、前一期政府支出的成長率，呈現明顯的正相關。
(2)下一期水險保費成長率與前一期消費支出、本期民間投資、當期的出口的成長率，呈現明顯的正相關。
(3)下一期工程險及新種險保費成長率與當期的消費支出、前一期的民間技資、前一期的出口及當期進口的成長率，呈現明顯的正相關。

關鍵字

總體經濟因素 ； 產物保險 ； 向量自我迴歸(VAR)

並列摘要

The purpose of this thesis is to research the relation between macroeconomic factors and premium income of property and casualty（P&C）insurance market. The data come from Taiwan Insurance Institute from 1982 to 2009 and the economical statistics is from United States Department of Agriculture. Method of research is using VAR to get the relation between macroeconomic factors and premiums of all line products. The results reveal：
1.P&C premium income of next period has a positive correlation with GDP of base and prior period, current NTD exchange rate, current CPI, and growth rate of automobile for the prior period.
2.The lead-lag relationship between the first-order difference of P&C premium income and CPI. and between the first-order difference of P&C premium income and the numbers of automobile.
3.The impulse responses between the growth of GDP and P&C premium income reaches the summit in the 4th year, and between the NTD currency exchange rate and the growth of P&C premium income reaches the summit in the 2nd year.
4.The empirical result for premium income of all lines to ultimate consuming factors are as below：
（1）There is an obvious positive correlation between premium growth rate for auto & fire insurance of next period and current CPI, change rate for government expenses of prior period.
（2）There is an obvious positive correlation between premium growth rate for marine insurance of next period and CPI of the prior period, current investment and change rate for export of the prior period.
（3）There is an obvious positive correlation between premium growth rate for casualty and engineering insurance of next period and current CPI, investment of the prior period, growth rate for export of the prior period and import of the current period.

並列關鍵字

macroeconomics factors ； property and casualty insurance, ； VAR

參考文獻

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