政府經常性支出與經濟成長-跨國實證研究

The impact of Government Current Expenditure On Economic Activity-A Panel Data Analysis

林蘩瀧(Fan-Long Lin)

指導教授 ： 萬哲鈺

淡江大學/商管學院/經濟學系碩士班/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2015.00020

摘要

本文沿用普通最小平方法(Ordinary Least Square)、固定效果模型(Fixed Effect Model)、固定效果動態追蹤資料(Fixed Effect Dynamic Panel Model)探討各個國家政府支出占GDP比例對經濟成長的影響，研究期間為1980年至2012年，研究國家66個國家，結果為政府支出占GDP比例對經經濟成長呈負相關且非常顯著，與Kevin and Tullock(1989)結果相同，顯示各國政府支出占GDP比例應減少，才得以促進經濟成長，此與大部份文獻一致。
另外，我們也發現政府支出占GDP比例與投資成長率和投資占GDP比例之間呈反向關係，表示增加政府支出占GDP比例，反而抑制政府投資和民間投資，應削減政府支出占GDP比例，才會使得政府投資和民間投資有所增加，經濟成長也才會有所提升。

關鍵字

經濟成長率 ； 政府支出佔GDP比例 ； 投資占GDP比例 ； 投資成長率

並列摘要

This article uses OLS、Fixed Effect and Fixed Effect Dynamic Panel Model to discuss how countries government current expecditure to GDP influences economic growth。The period of research is from 1980-2012 and covers 66 countries。The results indicate that government current expenditure to GDP has a strong negative effect on economic growth。This is identical to Kevin and Tullock(1989)identical and suggests that the ratio of government current expenditure to GDP should be decreased，so that economic growth could be promoted。This conclusion is consistent with a majority of the references considered。
In addition，we discover that the government current expenditure to GDP has a negative effect on investment growth and the ratio of investment to GDP，which indicates that increasing government current expenditure to GDP may restrain government investment and private investment。Thus government current expenditure to GDP should be kept to a minimum，so that government investment and private investment will grow and economic growth will be promoted。

並列關鍵字

Economic Growth ； Government current Expenditure to GDP ； Investment to GDP ； Investment Growth

參考文獻

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National Bureau of Economic Research, 271-304.