中國一帶一路倡議下中國與印度關係之研究

習近平在2012年11月中共十八大出任中共中央總書記兼中共中央軍委主席後隨即提出對「中華民族偉大復興」的一個構想「中國夢」，也是中國共產黨第五代中央領導集體的執政理念。更在 2013年3月十二屆全國人大一次會議中當選中華人民共和國主席及中華人民共和國中央軍事委員會主席後，於同(2013)年9、10月分別在哈薩克納扎爾巴耶夫大學作演講及在雅加達與時任印尼總統蘇西洛舉行會談時提出「絲綢之路經濟帶」和「21世紀海上絲綢之路」之倡議（Initiative of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road），簡稱一帶一路。而「一帶一路」之倡議係以共商、共建、共享的原則，沿著陸上絲綢之路及海上絲綢之路，發展中國和東南亞、南亞、中東、北非及歐洲各國的經濟合作關係，並藉此加強沿路的基礎建設，使投資貿易的便利性能有效的提升，進而建立高優質、高規格的自由貿易網絡，讓沿線各國經濟聯繫更加緊密，其周邊各國政治互動更為信賴，人文交流更加的廣泛。然綜觀現今世界各國經濟皆因國際金融危機影響，致經濟蕭條、復甦緩慢，各項經濟建設發展均發生窒礙，然儘管國際投資貿易格局和多邊投資貿易改變，仍難以精進及改善，所面臨的發展問題依然嚴峻。而習近平眼見國內產能過剩對中國國內整體經濟的運作造成了很大的問題，且出口國亦為單一且狹窄，反觀美、歐、日皆占據出口的重要位置，以致中國能夠增量空間更為縮小，為加速啟動國內消費難以推進的情況，遂通過「一帶一路」來開闢新的出口市場，並利用累積外匯儲備作為拉動全球增長的資本金，同時透過資本輸出來帶動過剩產能。宥於「一帶一路」是中國提出的第一個世界性戰略倡議，「一帶一路」旨在開拓更高水準，更深層次的區域合作，為能發展中印兩國關係提供新的契機。2015年3月，隨著「推動共建絲綢之路經濟帶和21世紀海上絲綢之路的願景與行動」的頒佈，「一帶一路」建設由提倡轉為執行階段。在現有的中印關係機制下，中印之間取得了一定的進展，但也由於在戰略上互信不足、經濟上安全顧慮以及邊界糾紛等問題仍然影響著中印關係的進一步發展。本文基於「一帶一路」戰略背景，針就了印度對一帶一路政策評估，接著研析了一帶一路戰略下中印關係之互動，主要包括中印的歷年來的衝突及互動的現況、中印政治關係的發展、中印經濟交流的發展、中印軍事作為的發展等四個面向，然後分析了中印關係未來的機遇與挑戰，並對中印關係的展望。

關鍵字

一帶一路；中印關係

並列摘要

In November 2012, Xi Jinping appointed the General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee and the Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party of China, and immediately proposed a "Chinese Dream" on the "Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation". It is also the ruling idea of the fifth generation of the Central Leading Group of the Communist Party of China. . After being elected as the President of the People’s Republic of China and the Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the People’s Republic of China at the First Session of the 12th National People’s Congress in March 2013, he gave a speech at the University of Kazakhstan’s Nazarbayev and in Jakarta in September and October of the same year. At the time of the talks with Indonesian President Susilo, the "Silk Road Economic Belt" and the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" initiative were introduced, referred to as the Belt and Road. The “One Belt, One Road” initiative develops economic cooperation between China and Southeast Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, North Africa and Europe along the Silk Road and Maritime Silk Road on the basis of the principles of mutual cooperation, co-construction and sharing. In order to strengthen the infrastructure along the line, to improve the convenience of investment and trade, and to establish a high-quality free trade network, the economy of the countries along the line will be enhanced, and the political interactions of neighboring countries will be more stable and stable, and cultural exchanges will be more. However, the current world economy is affected by the international financial crisis, resulting in slow economic recovery and various economic construction and development. Although the international investment and trade pattern and multilateral investment and trade are still changing, it is still difficult to improve, and the problems faced are still grim. Xi Jinping sees that overcapacity in China has caused great problems in China's overall domestic economy, and the exporting countries are also single and narrow. In contrast, the United States, Europe and Japan all occupy important positions in exports, so that China can increase the space more. In order to reduce the situation, it is difficult to break through the situation of domestic consumption. Through the “Belt and Road” to open up new export markets, and use accumulated foreign exchange reserves as the capital to stimulate global growth, and at the same time drive excess capacity through capital output. In addition, China's main material resources are highly dependent on foreign countries. These resources mainly enter China through coastal sea routes, and the pipelines are relatively simple. However, cooperation with other important resource countries is not deep, and economic and trade cooperation is not effective. The promotion of resources has made the cooperation in resources unstable and consolidated. The “Belt and Road” has brought a large number of effective land resources, which is particularly important for the diversification of resource acquisition. The “One Belt, One Road” initiative is China’s first global strategic initiative. With the promulgation of the “Vision and Action for Promoting the Construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road” in March 2015, The construction of the road has been promoted to the implementation stage. Under the existing Sino-Indian relationship mechanism, China and India have made some progress, but problems such as insufficient strategic mutual trust, economic security concerns and border disputes still affect the further development of Sino-Indian relations. Based on the strategic concept of “One Belt, One Road”, this paper examines India's policy assessment of the Belt and Road Initiative, and then analyzes the interaction between China and India under the Belt and Road Strategy, including the current conflicts and interactions between China and India, and China-India politics. The development of relations, the development of China-India economic exchanges, and the development of Sino-Indian military affairs, then analyzed the future opportunities and challenges of China-India relations and the prospects for Sino-Indian relations.