以逐步分解迴歸分析法與計量比較法建構都會區房地產估價模型

Building real estate valuation models for metropolitan areas using stepwise decomposition regression analysis and quantitative comparative approach

吳宗翰(Chung-Han Wu)

指導教授 ： 葉怡成

淡江大學/工學院/土木工程學系碩士班/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2015.00374

摘要

本研究提出逐步分解迴歸分析法、計量比較法及前兩者混合法用於房地產估價。考慮的影響因子包括距最近捷運站距離、徒步生活圈內的超商數、屋齡、成交年月、二度空間座標、面臨路寬，研究區域為台北市十二個行政區。結論如下：(1) 距離最近捷運站距離是所有因子中影響最大的因子，影響的方向為距最近捷運站距離為反比、徒步生活圈內的超商數為正比、屋齡為反比、成交年月為正比、二度空間座標的分析結果顯示越靠近台北市市中心，房價越高。但路寬的影響不顯著。(2) 計量比較法20%誤差平均命中率高出逐步分解迴歸分析法5%以上。(3) 混合法優於計量比較法，但不顯著。

關鍵字

迴歸分析法 ； 計量比較法 ； 房地產估價

並列摘要

The purpose of this study is to propose the stepwise decomposition regression analysis, quantitative comparative approach, and their mixed method to build real estate valuation models. The valuation target is the price per unit area. The factors considered in this study include distance to the nearest MRT station, amount of convenience stores in the living circle, age of the house, transaction date, geographic coordinates and width of the road. The study areas are all the twelve administrative areas of Taipei City. The results showed that (1) the distance to the nearest MRT station is the most important factor among all the factors. (2) Distance to the nearest MRT station and age of house are inversely proportional factors; amount of convenience stores in the living circle and transaction date are proportional factors. The analysis of geographic coordinates showed that the closer to the center of Taipei, the higher the real estate price. But the effect of width of road is not significant. (2) The 20% error hit rates of real estate valuation of quantitative comparative approach were 5% greater than the stepwise decomposition regression analysis. (3) The mixed methods are more accurate than the quantitative comparative approach but not significantly.

並列關鍵字

stepwise decomposition regression analysis ； quantitative comparative approach ； real estate valuation model

參考文獻

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