一帶一路行動戰略之研究-以孫子行動戰略概念分析

本論文主要採取孫子兵法行動戰略為研究途徑，由文獻分析法作為研究方法。依據思想、計劃、行動、思考情報四個面向，探討2013年-2020年習近平主政期間，提出的「一帶一路」倡議規劃、運用與評估。首先，進行中國推動「一帶一路」倡議內外環境分析，探討中國國力基礎與銳實力運用狀況，同時中國推出倡議的理由是否符合國家利益，即所謂出師有名。可以得知，以現今中國已具備推動「一帶一路」倡議的實力，同時倡議符合領袖的政治目的，中國在黨國合一的體制下，領裡利益等同於國家利益。其次，「一帶一路」倡議透過外交經濟手段，較軍事手段所損耗的國家資源少。接著，在精算敵我優劣勢的過程中，分析沿線區域對倡議的依賴程度，尋找出各國加入倡議的突破口。可以得知，沿線國家為加強本國經濟成長，趁勢加入倡議進入中國內需市場或獲得資源投入。再者，「一帶一路」倡議參與國眾多，各國地域文化需求不同，探討延伸出的行動方式也不同。可以得知，倡議實際行動模式的確運用孫子戰略行動的攻守、奇正、虛實、迂直。同時思考與情報應該貫穿整個「一帶一路」倡議，透過分析倡議是否滿足「孫子四求」的大方向，與各環節的情報能力。可以得知，倡議離「孫子四求」仍有距離，但情報能力卻相當出色。綜合以上分析，透過孫子兵法行動戰略概念分析「一帶一路」倡議成敗，不完全取決於硬體、技術、資金等問題，反而人民素質、法治精神、公平性、透明度、官僚體制等軟實力問題才是決勝點，也是中國所缺乏的。

關鍵字

一帶一路；孫子兵法；行動戰略；習近平；絲綢之路經濟帶； 21世紀海上絲綢之路

並列摘要

This thesis takes Sun Tzu's Strategy of Action as a historical approach and document analysis method is used as the research method. Based on the four aspects of thinking, planning, action, and thinking about intelligence, the purpose of this study is to investigate the planning, application and evaluation of the "one Belt one Road" (B R) by Xi Jinping from 2013 to 2020. First, analyze the internal and external environment of China's promotion of the "one Belt one Road". Discover the national power foundation of China and the situation of sharp power application. At the same time, whether the reasons of roll out an initiative is in the interest of the country, that is, the so-called famous teacher. From this, now that China has the strength to promote the "one Belt one Road", and meanwhile the initiative is in line with the political goals of the leader. Under the system of the unity of the party and the state of China, national interests are equivalent to national interests. Second, the "one Belt one Road" consumes less national resources through diplomatic and economic means than military means. After that, in the process of actuarially calculating the strengths and weaknesses, analyze the dependence of the regions along the route on the initiative, and find a breakthrough for countries to join. It can be known that in order to strengthen their own economic growth, countries along the route have taken advantage of the opportunity to join the initiative to enter domestic demand market of China or obtain resource input. Furthermore, there are many participating countries in the "one Belt one Road", and the exploration and extension of the action methods are also different due to each country has different regional and cultural needs. It can be seen that the actual action models of the initiative does indeed use the offensive, defensive, eccentricity reality, indirectness of Sun Tzu's Strategy of Action. Meanwhile, thinking and intelligence should run through the entire "one Belt one Road" by analyzing whether the initiative meets the direction of the "knows, first, all, goods " and the intelligence capabilities of every aspect. Conclusion, the initiative is still far from the "knows, first, all, goods ", but its intelligence capabilities are quite outstanding. Based on the above analysis, the success or failure of the "one Belt one Road" is analyzed by using the strategic concept of Sun Tzu's Strategy of Action. It does not entirely depend on issues such as hardware, technology, and funding. The decisive point is the quality of the people, the spirit of the rule of law, fairness, transparency, and the bureaucracy which are China lacks.