從美國次級房貸風暴看金融全球化的危機

The Financial Crisis and U.S. Sub-prime Mortgage Credit Curnch

林育菱(Yu-Ling Lin)

指導教授 ： 任燿廷

淡江大學/國際研究學院/日本研究所碩士在職專班/碩士(2009年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2009.00600

摘要

本論文主要為探討美國2007年次級房貸風暴及金融全球化的關係，金融危機發展至今，造成了全球金融市場的混亂如我們所見，這場金融災難從美國發生後再蔓延全球，本論文歸納主要有三個原因來說明為何美國國內的貸款問題會引發全球金融危機甚至到現在已經嚴重影響到實體經濟的發展並讓全球陷入經濟衰退的困境。
第一個原因是寬鬆的金融規制及金融全球化。美國次級房貸風暴發生的根本原因是在於對信用衍生性商品的監督及管理出了問題，美國金融機構對於這些以次級房貸為擔保基礎的結構性商品的風險轉嫁，只是讓信用泡沫越滾越大，在金融全球化的環境底下更是發揮了極大的滲透力，相關商品雖然行銷至全球各地，但是當房市價格開始反轉直下，信用泡沫也終於破滅，其所帶來的金融海嘯也席捲全球。
第二個原因是對於信用衍生性商品的風險管理，本論文整理分析次級房貸風暴在此次風險管理程序上出了什麼樣的問題。
最後一個原因是全球經常帳的失衡。高速的經濟成長，經常帳的巨額失衡，長期實質利率偏低，利差交易投機，溫和的通膨，信用過度擴張，大致描繪出美國次級房貸風暴前的全球經濟情況，本論文探討為什麼新興經濟體要保有超額的外匯準備，另外超額儲蓄及超額消費為什麼會造成全球經濟的不穩定。
本論文另外一個重點是探討日本1997~1998的金融危機處理模式與現在美國次級房貸所引發的全球金融危機的處理方式的分析比較。而其中差異最大的不同點是美國此次金融危機中減損的資產大部分是屬信用衍生結構性商品，因此資產損失金額龐大且難以估計以至於金融機構流動性短期間內難以恢復正常。
目前我們所面臨的困境是自1930年經濟大蕭條以來最嚴峻的考驗，所謂的金融技術創新及金融自由化是否真為這個世界帶來更多的財富，又或者只是為全球金融市場帶來更不穩定的發展，在全球經濟失衡的大環境底下，我們必須思考全球經濟應該如何均衡的發展，才能讓社會貧富差距縮小並逐漸反轉國與國之間經常帳的失衡，而讓資源能更有效的被運用，全球經濟為這次的金融危機付出相當大的代價，史無前例的大規模金融救援行動及政府鉅額的支出讓我們深刻的體會到，金融體系一旦崩壞對於實體經濟帶來的衝擊有多巨大，因此在這次事件當中，我們應記取此次金融危機的教訓，發現問題並解決問題，才能避免重蹈覆轍陷入更艱難的困境。
關鍵字: 次級房貸、金融全球化、金融自由化、信用衍生性商品、
經常帳失衡、風險管理。

關鍵字

次級房貸 ； 金融全球化 ； 金融自由化 ； 信用衍生性商品 ； 經常帳失衡 ； 風險管理

並列摘要

The main purpose of this paper is discussing about the relations between sub-prime mortgage crisis and global finance at risk. As we have seen, present financial crisis derived from U.S. domestic loan problem caused such disorder in global financial markets and then brought severe impact to real economy.
First, financial deregulation and liberalization, the essential problem of U.S. sup-prime mortgage crisis is the regulation with credit derivatives in financial institutions. Self-righteous risk transformation on structural products related to sub-prime mortgage caused housing bubble bigger and bigger and it would collapse when downturn pressure on housing market.
The second reason is the unsuitable risk management of financial credit derivatives. This paper analyzed that why the financial regulation should catch up the pace of newly financial advanced technology.
Finally reason is the imbalanced current account in the world. Rapid growth, unbalance of enormous current account, low long-term real interests, risky spread, moderate inflation and credit growth, all the phenomenon have described our global economy before U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis. This paper analyzed that why some countries have to hold such enormous foreign reserves and why saying surplus and excess consumption caused the instability to global economy.
Another point of this thesis is the comparison of treatment between Japanese financial crisis in 1997~98 and U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis. The most differentia between these two cases is the value of write-down assets. In the American toxic assets for example, it is very hard to value the price because these toxic assets are belong to credit derivative structural products. It is also can explain why the recovery process of liquidity takes so long.
The situation we are facing is the most difficult sine the “Great Depression” in 1930s. Global governments have tried many ways to stabilize financial turmoil and running large fiscal deficits to recovery economies. But one thing we have to realize is that no matter the natural resources or properties should be used in efficiency. Only through the way of balanced development can improve social dislocation and full employment.

並列關鍵字

Sub-prime Mortgage ； Financial Globalization ； Financial LiberalizationImbalance Current Account ； Risk Management ； Credit Derivative ； Imbalance Current Account

參考文獻

1.Stiglitz, Joseph. E. (2006) Making Globalization Work, New York: W.W. Norton & Company Inc.

English Books

3.Togo, Kazuhiko (2005) Japan’s Foreign Policy 1945-2003, Boston: Koninklijke BrillNV, Leiden.

Japanese books

Discussion and Research Papers