中國大陸人口結構對於房地產價格影響之實證研究

The Impact of Demographic Structure on Real Estate Price : The Empirical Evidence in China

翁聖洋(Sheng-Yang Weng)

指導教授 ： 繆震宇 ； 田峻吉

淡江大學/商學院/保險學系保險經營碩士班/碩士(2012年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2012.00743

摘要

近十年來研究發現人口結構對於房地產市場會產生影響，目前中國大陸人口結構面臨從低金字塔轉變為高金字塔，而房地產市場也在90年代末期逐步私有化；這兩者之間的關係值得探討、分析。本研究延伸G. Donald Jud and Daniel T. Winkler (2002)所建立的模型，以中國大陸為例，研究經濟變數變化率與人口結構比率對於房地產價格超額報酬之影響。研究發現，東部與西部落後一期總收入變化率對於房地產價格超額報酬為顯著正相關，全國與西部落後一期15-64歲人口數比率對於房地產價格超額報酬為顯著正相關，東部當期總收入變化率對於房地產價格超額報酬為顯著正相關，西部當期可支配收入變化率對於房地產價格超額報酬為顯著正相關，此外，也發現全國與所有區域無論是落後一期或當期65歲及以上人口數比率變化時，房地產價格超額報酬也會隨之變化，顯示65歲及以上人口數比率對於房地產價格超額報酬的影響較為明顯。

關鍵字

人口結構 ； 房地產價格超額報酬

並列摘要

Over the past decade, the study has found that the demographic structure has an impact on the real estate market. The demographic structure in China is facing the shift from low pyramid to high pyramid, and the real estate market has gradually been privatized in the late 1990s; the relationship between these two are worth of discussion and analysis. Our research extends the model by G. Donald Jud and Daniel T. Winkler (2002). Taking China as an example, to use the data of economic variable rate of change and the ratio of demographic structure for the excess return of the real estate prices. The study found that the east provinces and west provinces lag a rate of change of total revenue for the excess return of the real estate prices have a significant positive correlation. The entire country and the west lag a rate of change of population ages 15-64 for the excess return of the real estate prices has significant positive correlation. The current rate of the east’s change of total revenue for the excess return of the real estate prices has significant positive correlation. The current rate of west’s change of disposable income for the excess return of the real estate prices has significant positive correlation. In addition, it is also found that no matter the lag or the changes of current ratio number who over the population of 65 ages for the whole country and all regions, the excess return of the real estate prices will change. Population ratio of the excess return of real estate prices over the population of 65 ages is more obvious.

並列關鍵字

demographic structure ； the excess return of the real estate prices

參考文獻

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