美國人口結構對於房地產價格影響之實證研究

The Impact of Demographic Structure on Real Estate Price : Evidence from U.S. Data

余世傑(Shih-Chieh Yu)

指導教授 ： 繆震宇 ； 田峻吉

淡江大學/商學院/保險學系保險經營碩士班/碩士(2012年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2012.00783

摘要

本研究主要在探討人口結構的變化對於房地產是否會產生影響，控制其他經濟變數。本研究運用G. Donald Jud and Daniel T. Winkler (2002)所建立的模型，以美國51州為例並分為8個區域作探討，控制經濟變數的成長率來探討人口變數的成長率對於房價指數的成長率之影響。研究發現，全國與各區域，除了受到當地特質的影響，其結果差異不大，在經濟變數中建築成本、實質GDP、可支配個人收入、個人收入都與房價指數有顯著且正相關，而1年期ARM為顯著負相關，在人口變數20-30歲大多為不顯著，而31-64歲與65歲以上都具有顯著，前者為正相關，後者為負相關，其中以31-64歲對房價的影響最大。

關鍵字

人口結構 ； 房地產價格 ； 生命循環理論

並列摘要

This paper was to investigate the impact of demographic structure on real estate price, controlling for other economic variables. In this paper, the model designed by G.Donald Jud and Daniel T.Winkler(2002)evidenced from the United States,51states and divided into 8 regions.
The model explored the impact of demographic structure on real estate price, controlling for other economic variables. The paper found that national and regional result is similar, in addition to the local characteristics. In the economic variables construction costs, real GDP, disposable personal income and personal income significantly and positive. 1-year ARM is a significant and negative. Population of 20-30 ages is insignificant. Population of 31-64 ages and above 65 ages is significant. The former is a positive, and the latter is negative. Population of 31-64 ages is great effect on real estate price.

並列關鍵字

Demographic Structure ； Real Estate Price ； Life-Cycle Theory

參考文獻

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