訪日旅客數之目的別分析－以1996-2016年35個國家之追蹤資料分析

日本於2006年12月，全面修改觀光基本法。並將觀光立國視為一種國家戰略。2013年3月日本內閣決定「觀光興國推動基本計畫」，觀光成為日本的重要政策。其中，由訪日旅客的國別來看，亞洲國家的訪日旅客以短期滯留居多，而歐美國家的旅客則以長期滯留居多。本研究主要係追蹤資料分析1996年-2016年35個國家的訪日旅客數之訪日目的別。關於探討訪日旅客數之訪日目的別的決定要因之論述，學者中澤榮一(2009) 對從外國32 個國家的訪日旅客，對於Visit JAPAN 事業(VJ：訪日旅遊促進事業) 所帶來的效果，進行了回歸分析。本研究係以訪日目的別為研究分析主體，推斷的對象為35 個國家，被說明變數為訪日目的別之訪日旅客數(自然對數)、說明變數為訪日旅客之其所屬國(以下簡稱為對方國)之實質GDP(自然對數)、對方國之人均實質GDP (自然對數)、對方國之總人口(自然對數)、日本與對方國之距離(自然變數)等共三個變數，並收集1996 年至2016 年35 個國家之追蹤資料，以重力模型分析並實證訪日旅客數及其目的別之變化。本研究經以重力模型分析實證之主要結果，訪日旅客數之訪日目的別成長的最大要因是觀光客的大幅增加，另外作為訪日旅客數的變動要因，第一為所得要因、第二為移動費用、第三為觀光服務的種類。並且瞭解為了促進訪日旅客總數、商用客數、觀光客數，最有效的是擴大觀光服務的種類。

關鍵字

訪日旅客；訪日目的別；追蹤資料分析；重力模型

並列摘要

Japan in December 2006, comprehensive revision of the Basic Law on Tourism and the establishment of a nation as a national strategy. This study is mainly based on panel data analysis 1996 - 2016 in 35 countries to visit Japan. On the discussion of the number of visitors to Japan to visit Japan to decide on the reasons for other decisions, Scholar Nakazawa Eiichi (2009) for foreign visitors from 32 countries to Japan, Visit JAPAN business (VJ: visit to Japan Tourism Promotion Industry) conducted a regression analysis. This study is based on the main purpose of the study visit to Japan, the object of inference is 35 countries, was explained variance for the purpose of visiting Japan, the number of visitors(natural logarithm), indicating that the variable is the visiting country of their passengers (hereinafter referred to as the other (Natural logarithm) of the other country, total real GDP per capita (natural logarithm), total population of the other country (natural logarithm), distance between Japan and the other country (natural variable) Tracking data on 35 countries from 1996 to 2016 are analyzed by gravity model and the actual number of visitors to Japan and their purpose are not changed. In this study, the main results of the empirical analysis of gravity model, the number of visitors to Japan to Japan do not grow the most important reason is the substantial increase in tourists, in order to promote the total number of visitors to Japan, the number of commercial visitors, the number of visitors, the most effective is to expand the tourism The type of service.