以桃園經驗看中國惠州房地產之未來展望

不論以居住面積或總人口數做比較，未來中國房地產成長展望有目可待，然目前僅中國沿海地區已進入開發與建設階段，許多內陸地區發展仍屬未開發之區域，考量資源與經濟成長之優勢，加上中國政府近年城鄉發展政策，不論是園區、廠房、住宅或是其他建築之需求，將會帶動二三線城市就業人口成長，隨經濟榮景而來房地產增值與投資榮景，更是指日可待。比較產業結構、地理位置、以及國家政策對城市發展之期望，惠州市與台灣桃園市有著極為類似之條件，若可透過桃園經驗評估惠州未來之產業與房地產發展，相信可提升投資人對未來惠州市房地產投資之意願，進而帶動整體惠州市之經濟發展。故本研究主要是為了探討過去中國與惠州市的開發建設規劃，並分析過去桃園經濟發展與房地產價值提升之連帶關係。依據本研究顯示，若要有效檢視單一個地區的房地產起伏，除針對該區地理位置是否鄰近首都圈外，該都市之產業型態，加上國家整體區域發展計畫，以及陸海空三大交通基礎建設是否完善，皆可能影響整體房價走勢，若單就以基礎建設完善率、地利位置與交通便利性、都市計畫相關性以及 GDP 經濟成長等三大因素相比，桃園市與惠州市均有較高的相似性。故本研究將針對惠州市未來房價可投資之策略，做一概略性的分析與介紹。

關鍵字

桃園；惠州；房地產；區域發展；基礎建設

並列摘要

Regardless of the living area or the total population, the future growth prospects of China’s real estate are clear. However, only the coastal areas of China have entered the stage of development and construction. Many inland areas are still undeveloped areas. Consider resources and economy. The advantages of growth, coupled with the recent urban and rural development policies of the Chinese government, whether it is the demand for parks, factories, residences or other buildings, will drive the growth of employment in second and third tier cities. Real estate appreciation and investment prosperity will follow the economic prosperity. Comparing the industrial structure, geographical location, and national policy expectations for urban development, Huizhou and Taoyuan City in Taiwan have very similar conditions. If the future industrial and real estate development of Huizhou can be evaluated through Taoyuan’s experience, it is believed that it will enhance investors’ perception of Huizhou in the future. The willingness to invest in real estate in the city, which in turn drives the overall economic development of Huizhou. Therefore, the main purpose of this research is to explore the development and construction plans of China and Huizhou in the past, and to analyze the connection between the economic development of Taoyuan and the increase in real estate value in the past. According to this research, to effectively examine the real estate ups and downs of a single region, in addition to whether the region’s geographic location is close to the capital, the city’s industrial type, the country’s overall regional development plan, and the three major transportation infrastructures of land, sea and air Whether the construction is complete or not may affect the overall housing price trend. If only the three major factors including the infrastructure improvement rate, geographical location and transportation convenience, urban planning relevance, and GDP economic growth are compared, both Taoyuan City and Huizhou Higher similarity. Therefore, this study will make a rough analysis and introduction to the strategies of Huizhou City's future housing prices that can be invested.