影響訪日旅客要因之實證研究－以貿易引力模型分析

日本多年來著重於觀光產業市場之開拓，尤其在開放天空協定等航空自由化的潮流中，其對日本外國觀光客數的變化所帶來的影響力，為日本振興經濟重要之一環，本研究主要係探討影響日本外國觀光客訪日之決定因子，並加以分析與實證。　有關探討影響外國觀光客訪日之決定因子之論述，例如學者中澤榮一(2009)係以2000年代VJC (Visit Japan Campaign：訪日旅行促進事業)的經濟效果作為分析之主體。日本在2010年以後積極與許多國家簽訂開放天空協定，本研究係以開放天空協定為研究分析主體，結合日本與訪日外國觀光客所屬國籍(以下簡稱為相對國)之實質GDP乘積(自然對數)、相對國之總人口(自然對數)、相對國與日本之距離(自然對數)、東日本大地震因子等共五個變數，並收集2003年至2014年36個國家之追蹤資料，以貿易引力模型來分析並實證外國觀光客訪日之變化。　本研究經以貿易引力模型分析實證之主要結果，簽訂開放天空協定對外國觀光客訪日之效果符合假設推論，在航空領域中減低政府對航空政策的干預具相當之重要性。

關鍵字

訪日外國觀光客；開放天空協定；貿易引力模型；追蹤資料分析

並列摘要

Japan has been focused on explore its tourism industry for years, especially endeavor to the popularity of Open-Skies Agreement and Aviation Liberalization which has been the main variant factor impacting on volume of foreign tourist visiting Japan, and also being an important part that promotes prosperity of Japanese Economics. This search is going to focus on discussing key determining factors that affect foreign tourist visiting Japan by analyzing and evidence based approach. In regards to the discussion on how key determining factors effect on foreign tourist visiting Japan, such as scholar Nakazawa Eiichi (2009) referencing to year 2000 era of VJC (Visit Japan Campaign: Visiting Japan promotes Business) as a main analyzing area for cost effectiveness. After year 2010, Japan has been keen to sign up Open-Skies Agreement with many countries, and this has been the main research theme, further to connect Japan and its foreign tourist nationality (below reference to Relative States) actual GDP Product (Natural Logarithm)、Relative States Total Population (Natural Logarithm) 、Geographic distance between Japan and its Relative States (Natural Logarithm)、East Japan earthquake, that have applied Gravity Model analysis and proving how volume of foreign visitors have changed based on total five variants above by collecting tracking information from 34 countries during year 2003 to 2014. This research is based on evident based result of Gravity Model, signing Open-Skies Agreement for foreign visitors in line with hypothesis assumption that it is important reducing government interference on aviation policy in aviation sector.