本研究主要的目的是利用單根檢定、追蹤資料單根檢定和最小平方法,檢測OECD國家、社會保險制度、國民保健服務制度及台灣地區這四大領域影響實質醫療支出成長之決定因素,以人口結構及納保人口比例為考量的重點。 選取29個OECD國家 1961年至2004年間與台灣 1983至2004年的樣本資料,以平均每人醫療支出為被解釋變數,平均每人國內生產毛額、65歲以上老年人口比例、平均餘命、納保人口比例及每千人口醫師數為解釋變數。 以OECD國家為樣本之實證結果發現,所得這個變數,不因不同樣本的選取而呈現不同的結果,所得仍是目前影響平均每人醫療支出成長最重要的因素;在人口結構方面,65歲以上的老年人口比例不在是影響醫療支出成長的主要因素,反倒是平均餘命在某些樣本的選取下是值得去關注的;納保人口比例如同65歲以上的老年人口比例一樣,不再是影響醫療支出成長的主要因素;每千人口醫師數,在不同樣本的選取下則會呈現不同的結果,也如同平均餘命般是個不可忽略的變數。 另外,以台灣為樣本之實證結果發現,所得及納保人口比例這兩大因素,是左右醫療支出成長的最重要因素。
The purpose of this research is using unit root test, panel unit root test and OLS, to find the key elements of affecting the growing health expenditure for the following four segments: OCED countries, social insurance model (SI), national health system (NHS), and Taiwan area. The focuses of the research are the analysis of the population structure and the percentage of health insured population. The sample data used in this research is from the selected 29 OECD countries (1961-2004) and Taiwan (1983-2004). The dependent variable is health expenditure per capita; while the explanatory variables are GDP per capita, 65 years old population percentage, average life expectancy, percentage of insured population, and number of practicing physicians per thousand persons. The result from sampling OCED countries shows the dependent variable doesn’t show big differences among the 29 selected countries. Moreover, it shows among the OCED countries, the most important factor of affecting health expenditure per capita is still income (GDP per capita). However, the results from some of the countries are affected by average life expectancy. As well as 65 years old population percentage, percentage of insured population is not the major factor of affecting health expenditure anymore. In addition, the number of practicing physicians per thousand persons affects the result for some of the countries. Together with average life expectancy, it is also a variable can’t be ignored. On the other hand, the result from Taiwan shows the two major factors of affecting health expenditure are income (GDP per capita) and percentage of insured population.