軌道運輸理論協助病患避難之不確定性分析

A Study of Uncertainty Analysis Based on the Track System to Assist Patient for Evacuation Integrated Transport Theory Model

張崇展(Chung-Chan Chang)

指導教授 ： 林正平

國立臺北科技大學/工程學院/土木與防災研究所/碩士(2014年)

https://doi.org/10.6841/NTUT.2014.00212

摘要

醫院除了提供民眾照護需求，亦增設餐飲、剪髮等相關服務設施。而服務設施的增加，造就現今醫院逐漸邁向複合建築型態，致使提升逃生方向的複雜性。加上因醫療用途之需，院內存有大量且種類繁多之可燃物品，具有高火載量，進而成為火災高風險之場所。由於我國護理人員與病患人數比例配置懸殊，往往無法即時引導病人避難，以致逃生行動之延遲，顯現出護理人力不足的問題。為了彌補人員配置之差距，本研究透過自動化軌道運輸的概念，建立軌道支援系統之避難模式，在第一時間運送病患至相對安全區域，有別於傳統上醫護人員協助病患之避難模式，藉以降低病患生命財產損失之風險。
本研究以新營北門分院二樓為案例研究對象，首先探討各屬性病患於院內之最適配置，並建構醫相關數學模式。另外，運用火災模擬軟體FDS模擬煙流行為，分析煙層流動以及下降情形，並以此擴散時間作為病患撤離之限制條件。最後，藉由蒙地卡羅模擬評估此案例模式之不確定性及其風險。結果顯示，在95%信心水準下，醫護人員協助病患避難模式總和疏散人數為39人，其疏散率為65%；而軌道支援系統避難模式總和疏散人數為57人，其疏散率為95%。因此，透過本研究建置軌道之支援可大大提升疏散率。

關鍵字

醫院 ； 避難 ； 蒙地卡羅

並列摘要

Because of the need of medical purposes, there are plenty of combustible materials in hospitals, which make fire load be increased . In addition, the increase in service function, such as: of the catering,hair-cutting, which make hospitals recently graduate to composite architectural patterns. Especially the no-autonomous ill patients, because their action force is limited. In case of fire, even in the situation of lack of manpower, it can't help patients to take refuge efficiently and will result in the difficulties of fire safety. However, the ratio of nurses and patients to dispose have a wide gap, When a fire occurs, the nurses are often unable to guide for evacuation immediately while delayed of the evacuate action that revealed nursing the problem of nursing manpower shortage. To compensate the gap of staffing, this research through automated rail transport of the concept that established the track system of evacuation model for transporting patients to the safe area in time.
First, we will investigate the properties of each patient of optimum configuration in the hospital in the case study of Division of Beimen, Sinying Hospital, and establish the nurse to assist patient model and the track system to assist patient model. Furthermore, we use the fire simulation software-FDS (Fire Dynamics Simulator) to simulation the behavior of smoke, and analysis the flow of smoke layer on the decline time that as the conditions of patients evacuated. Finally, we use the method of Monte-Carlo simulation to assess the uncertainty and risk in this case model. The results show that the nurse to assist patient model to evacuate the number of 39 people at 95% confidence level, and the rate of evacuation is 65%;In the opposite, the track system to assist patient model to evacuate the number of 57 people at 95% confidence level, and the rate of evacuation is 95%. Therefore, in this study the track system of building can be greatly enhanced the rate of evacuation.

並列關鍵字

Hospital ； Evacuation ； Monte-Carlo Simulation

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