介接淹水模式於即時作業平台

現階段防洪預警作業技術，可藉由即時水文氣象觀測或預測資料內容，銜接水文水理模式，模擬計算得到現況與預測河川水位高程，提供防汛應變決策人員判斷之依據。但因水文氣象資料的高變異性以及洪水發生機率逐漸增加之情況下，往往因為洪水災害來得又急又快，進而造成地區應變時間減少，導致外水溢淹，造成沿岸地區民眾生命財產損失。為使地區應變時間增加，藉由即時預報平台進行淹水範圍預報已成為一種趨勢。目前即時水情預報之架構下，其預報精確度僅至河川警戒水位，在複雜地形情況下，精確度僅能提供淹水趨勢，對於鄉鎮市區層級之防災應變決策判斷依據不夠充足，導致防災應變決策有失準之風險。而淹水模式對複雜地形預報精確度較高，可相對清楚淹水範圍及深度。如能實作整合淹水模式至即時預報平台，配合即時預報平台本身多種水文氣象資料來源及多模式架構，提升淹水預報本身之可靠度，將可於防汛作業時期提供決策者更多參考依據。本研究將利用水利署與荷蘭Deltares Hydraulics所共同發展的即時水情預報平台FEWS_Taiwan做為模式整合架構核心，同時藉由歸納FEWS_Taiwan平台在實作整合執行之共通流程，並將其共通流程應用於SOBEK模式與開放原始碼的TELEMAC-2D水理模式。藉由FEWS_Taiwan平台整合執行共通性視點，分析兩種二維水理模式在整合執行上之資訊架構，以評估了解SOBEK模式以及TELEMAC-2D水理模式整合至即時預報平台之可行性及難易度，並於研究過程中同時研擬淹水模式整合標準流程，減少日後模式整合、維護之成本。

關鍵字

FEWS_Taiwan ；模式整合；淹水模式； SOBEK ； TELEMAC

並列摘要

At the moment the technology of the affair of flood protection and warning can be integrating hydroglogic and hydraulic models based on real-time hydrometeorological observation and forecast data, in order to figure out current state and forecast river level elevation through simulation and calculation so as to serve as reference for policy maker in determining decisions in flood protection. Since the hydrometeorological data has high variability and the probability of flood is increasing, floods often occur suddenly and allow less responding time for the suffering areas, which lead to loss of life and property for people residing at coastal areas due to overflowing of outer water. In order to increase response time for such areas, forecast about flooded areas announced by a real-time forecast operational platform has become a trend. The current architecture of real-time flood forecasting system provides displays forecast accuracy covering only warning stages and provides flooding trend only at areas with complicated topography, which is not sufficient for determining policy of disaster protection for the administrative level of township, city, and district, and might lead to risk of incorrect decision making for disaster protection. In contrast, inundation models has higher accuracy in forecast against complicated topography, and so provides clearer range and depth which might be flooded. By integrating inundation models to real-time forecasting operational platform in real case and coordinating it with various hydrometeorological information source and multi-model architecture of the real-time forecasting operational platform in order to enhance reliability of inundation forecast, the policy maker can obtain more information as reference when making decision during flood protection. This research employs the real-time flood forecasting platform, FEWS_Taiwan, which is jointly developed by our Water Resources Agency and Netherland’s Deltares Hydraulics, as the core of the model-integrating framework. Furthermore, and it summarizes common procedures of FEWS_Taiwan platform set during on-site integrated execution and applies these common procedures to SOBEK mode and TELEMAC-2D hydraulic mode of open source. Through integrated execution of commonality viewpoints of FEWS_Taiwan, this study analyzes the information framework of two 2D hydraulic models during integrated execution in order to assess and figure out feasibility and degree of difficulty of integrating SOBEK model and TELEMAC-2D hydraulic model to real-time forecast platform. Furthermore, this study develops analysis process for integration standard of inundation model simultaneously, in order to reduce cost of future integration and maintenance.

並列關鍵字

FEWS_Taiwan ； model integrating ； flood simulation model ； SOBEK ； TELEMAC

參考文獻

[2] 邱煌升，以OpenMI架構整合都市降雨逕流模式與雨水下水道模式，碩士，國立中原大學，桃園，2008。

[1] 林士浩，六小時雨量預報資訊之即時校正與分析，碩士，國立台北科技大學，台北，2012。

[3] 馮威勝，建構FEWS_Taiwan 與模式連結之標準作業方式，碩士，國立台北科技大學，台北，2010。

[8] 蔡佳璋，綜合治水對策中SOBEK淹水模式之應用─以雲林南部沿海地區為例，碩士，國立中興大學，台中，2006。

[10] A. Hayir, B. Seseogullari, I. Kilinc, A. Erturk, H.K. Cigizoglu, M.S. Kabdasli, O. Yagci, K. Day. "Scenarios tsunami amplitudes in the north eastern coast of Sea of Marmara generated by submarine mass failure," Coastal Engineering, 55, 2008, pp.333-356.

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介接淹水模式於即時作業平台

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