建立氣候變遷對空氣品質及大氣涵容能力衝擊評估與短期預警機制

The Development of Climate Change Impacts Assessment on Air Quality Short-term Warning System

許峻嘉(Chun-Chia Hsu)

指導教授 ： 曾昭衡

國立臺北科技大學/工程學院/環境工程與管理研究所/碩士(2008年)

摘要

本研究以空品模式建立氣候變遷對空氣品質衝擊評估模式，模擬台灣地區溫度、風速及雨量受衝擊之改變，分析長期2010~2099年每5年移動與短期2010~2027年每年移動之未來北部空品區空氣品質及大氣涵容能力變化，並進行了未來濃度-排放量比例(m)、空氣污染物濃度累積頻率分析，建立大氣涵容能力永續性預警機制。短期預測結果顯示，在未來排放量不變下，各污染物平均濃度皆為改善的情況(約1.5%~5%)，但即使CO、NMHC及O3等污染物之大區域(北部空品區) 的空氣品質變化趨勢為變好，但其局部小區域的變化(各縣市行政區) 在特定時期、特定季節，特定污染物濃度可能會呈現惡化的趨勢。
本研究以永續預警指標EWI(Early Warning Index，排放量與大氣涵容能力之比值)來預測未來空氣污染物排放量是否會超出其大氣涵容能力，且分析現況1998~2007年監測資料與依據IPCC未來預設情境建立之指標變化，其中以PM10及NOx排放量最接近未來大氣涵容能力，其他各污染物SO2、CO、NMHC皆小於0.6，而NOX的接近飽和暗示NMHC的管制將是O3濃度的關鍵。短期輔助修正長期預測，結果顯示現況及短期與長期未來預測平均濃度與空氣品質不良率大致趨勢吻合，故進行短期預測能輔助判讀長期預測之準確性。此外，另加入溫度、雨量及風速外的其他氣象因子修正空品衝擊評估模式，增加模擬氣候條件影響空氣品質的準確性，並已找出混合層高度是相當重要之因子，可將MAPE由14.59%降至11.98%。最後，本研究亦分析短期特定空氣污染議題，如評估熱島效應對未來空氣品質與大氣涵容能力之影響等，結果顯示，熱島效應與氣候變遷對空氣品質與大氣涵容能力之影響(約±1.5%)相較，其對大氣涵容能力之影響(約±0.3%)並不大。

關鍵字

空氣品質 ； 氣候變遷 ； 永續預警指標 ； 涵容能力 ； 氣候變遷對空氣品質衝擊

並列摘要

The research adopted “the model of Climate Change Impacts on Air Quality” to simulate the air quality impacts of temperature, wind speed and rainfall under climate change in Taiwan. The model of Climate Change Impacts on Air Quality was developed to predict the quinquennium and annually moving average on future air quality and carrying capacity of CO, PM10, SO2, NOx, O3, NMHC by emission. Results show that the carrying capacity of most air pollutants will be improved by 1.5%~5%. Even though the air quality of large-scale region (Northern air Basin) will be improved as CO, NMHC, and O3, however, the model shows that some local regions could be worse in specific time and season.
The research studied Short-Term Warning System, which use the data of currently observation from 1998 to 2007 and the future climate senerio of IPCC to predict the pollutant emissions of future whether exceeding the carrying capacity by the Early Warning Index (EWI). Predicted results show the emissions of air pollutant as PM10 and NOX approached the future carrying capacity, and the EWI index of SO2, CO, and NMHC were smaller than 0.6. And then the research applied the predicted results of short-term revised the results of long-term. In addition, it also added other meteorological factors to revise the model of Climate Change Impacts on future Air Quality, and found the mixing height was an important factor that improving the MAPE from 14.59% to 11.98%.
The study also analyzed the specific air pollution issues of short-term, such as the effect of urban heat island et cetera. Finally, results show the climate change impacts of air quality compared with the effect of urban heat island anerage concentration varied will about ±1.5%, but the effect of urban heat island were about ±0.3%. So the impacts of climate change strongly influent than the effect of urban heat island in the air quality.

並列關鍵字

Air Quality ； Climate Change ； Early Warning Index ； Carrying Capacity ； Climate Change Impacts on Air Quality Model

參考文獻

[69] 魏名材，建立氣候變遷對空氣品質及涵容能力衝擊評估與預警機制，碩士論文，國立台北科技大學環境規劃與管理研究所，台北，2007。

[49] 林淑華，全球氣候變遷模式推估與情境模擬簡介，林業研究專訊，第十五卷，第二期，2008，第5-7頁。

[53] 行政院環保署，空氣污染防制總檢討年報，2003。

[66] 孫振義，台南地區都市熱島研究，碩士論文，國立成功大學建築學系，台南，2003。

[21] J. H. Robert, L. K. Robert, “Sources And Control of Air Pollution” PRENTICE HALL,1999, pp.407-408.