多世代擴散模型下，產品生命週期階段存貨策略之研究─以主機板產業為例

The study of inventory strategy of product life cycle phase in Multi-generation diffusion models – Taking Motherboard Industry as Example

鄭淑萍(Shu-Ping Cheng)

指導教授 ： 陳銘崑

國立臺北科技大學/管理學院/商業自動化與管理研究所/碩士(2009年)

摘要

高科技產業為維持產品市場佔有率，會不斷進行產品改良以吸引更多的消費者，其產品具有單一產品多個世代的產品特性。Norton & Bass(1987)提出的多世代擴散模型為現今高科技產品所採用，但多世代擴散模型發展至今，會隨著不同產業及產品特性，發展合適於該產業的多世代擴散模型。因此本研究透過主機板產業特性分析，提出多世代擴散模型應進行季節性的調整，會更適用於主機板產品，並使預測更加準確。本研究將透過產業實際資料做為驗證，並比較Norton & Bass(1987)及本研究提出之主機板產業多世代擴散模式之預測能力。除外，本研究主要探討產品生命週期階段下，存貨策略對存貨成本所造成之影響，並提出各階段合適之存貨策略。

本研究發現，於產品生命週期之導入期與成熟期階段，建議應採(R,s,Q)政策；而於成長期和衰退期階段，建議應採(s,Q)政策，則可降低整體之存貨成本。企業可透過本研究初步模擬所得結果，在不同產品階段中進行調整，以作為決策時參考的依據。

關鍵字

多世代產品擴散模型 ； 預測 ； 季節調整 ； 存貨政策

並列摘要

Today's high-tech industries to maintain market share, the products will continue to improve to attract more consumers, have a single product with multi-generation characteristic. Bass (1969) didn’t consider the behavior of the old and new technology products alternative, so the multi-generation diffusion model (Norton & Bass (1987)) is more applicable to today's hi-tech products. Multi-generation diffusion model according to different industries characteristics to develop a suitable model. After the industry analysis of motherboard industry, we developed a Multi-generation diffusion model considered with seasonally adjusted for motherboard products, and using the actual data of motherboard industry to verify predictive capability. Except, this study focused on the inventory policies and the influence between inventory costs, and try to suggest the suitable inventory policy of every stages.

The study found that in the market introduction stage and mature stage of the product life cycle, it is proposed should be adopted (R, s, Q) policy; and in the growth and decline stage, if adopt (s, Q) policy, can reduce the inventory cost. The result of simulation can offer references to enterprise when making practical decisions.

並列關鍵字

Multi-generation diffusion model ； Forcasting ； Seasonally adjusted ； Inventory Policy

參考文獻

[14] 陳國民，「模組型產品創新之介面策略-理論架構暨台灣工具機與個人電腦產業的個案研究」，私立東海大學工業工程與經營資訊學系碩士論文，台中，2004。

[56] W. J. Stevenson, Operations Management (8th Edition), New York: McGraw-Hill, 2005.

[22] D. C. Schmittlein and V. Mahajan, “Maximum Likelihood Estimation for an Innovation Diffusion Model of New Product Acceptance,” Marketing Science, Vol.1, No.1, 1982, pp. 57-78.

[23] C. K. Chen, T.W. Hung and T.C. Weng, “Optimal replenishment policies with allowable shortages for a product life cycle, ” Computers & Mathematics with Applications, Vol.53, No.10, 2007,pp. 1582-1594.

[24] C.Y. Huang and G.H. Tzeng,“ Multiple generation product life cycle predictions using a novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change(SSCI), Vol. 75, No.1,2008, pp. 12-31.