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  • 學位論文

併購決策及換股比率分析 -- 以光頡科技併購泰銘科技為例

M & A decision-making and conversion ratio analysis -- Viking Tech M & A Case Study of Thai Ming

指導教授 : 林哲群
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摘要


摘 要 一般公司的決策是由上而下,較少討論的空間,在權威式的命令下展開後續作業。本論文的目的,是希望透過重新檢視方式,利用分析層級程序法(Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP),看是否會改變原有決策模式與結果,並作為企業未來決策參考,也希望藉由這流程將簡單的直覺式判斷,進一步分成結構式問題,將問題變為可以討論與驗證。另外一個目的是想瞭解二家公司合併,會以何種方式評價公司每股市價?又會以何種比率來換股? 研究結果發現:和公司的決策是一致的,因為光頡新竹廠已經飽和,急需一個現成的廠房擴充產能,而且泰銘在台灣高雄及大陸無鍚有工廠,剛好解決光頡產能和大陸內銷開立稅票的問題;因此,在分析權重時給予較高的權值;在人工成本、製造費用、材料成本也給了大陸併購較高的權重。 其次,在換股比率中,市價法和現金流量法,計算出3.89~15.35間的換股比率,這個區間的換股比率差異有四倍左右不可謂不大,由於取樣的關係泰銘的本益比己經是88.7,但計算其市價只有2.66元,主要是每股盈餘太低所致,因此,在推估市價計算換股比率時應剔除極端值,這樣提出的換股比率才有參考價值。 另外,經由AHP之兩兩比對方式給予權重做決策,其判斷的背後,受到決策者背景與主觀認知差異影響甚深,進而影響最終之決策結果。因此,事前盡可能的集思廣益,將各種可能的影響因子予以考量,可避免決策時受到片斷資訊或個人先入為主之觀感而做出考量不周之決策。

並列摘要


Abstract Most companies have a top-down decision making process that leaves little room for discussion. Work is implemented only after receiving orders from the top-level authorities. The objective of this study is to re-examine whether the utilization of Analytic Hierarchy Processes (AHP) can change existing decision-making structures and results, the results would be a useful reference for future decisions of various companies. We also hope that the intuitive decision-making methods of AHP can also incorporate structural questions. These questions can undergo further discussion or validation. Another objective is to understand the method adopted for market value methods for the evaluation of stock options owned by companies during a merger, and what type of conversion ratios would be used as a result. Our results agree with the decisions made by companies. Since the Xinzhu plant of Viking Tech Corporation is already filled to capacity, they would need an existing plant to expand their production. Thye Ming Industrial Co. happened to own plants in both Kaohsiung (in Taiwan) and Wuxi (in mainland China). These plants could be the solution for production issues and local sales taxation in the mainland faced by Viking Tech Corporation. Hence, more value was given to these plants when weighing the advantages. The purchase-merger with the mainland plants was given a higher priority due to advantages in labor, production and materials cost. Next, during stocks exchange, market comparison and discounted cash flow technique in addition to Gorden Model was used to give an exchange rate between 3.89~15.35. The difference between the minimum and maximum estimates was extremely significant with the maximum value a full four folds of the minimum. During the time of sampling, the price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of Thye Ming Industrial Co. was already at 88.7, with market value estimates giving a value of NT$ 2.66, largely due to the exceedingly low profit margin of each stock. Hence, when using the market value method to calculate the conversion ratio, we should take care to remove the extreme estimates to provide a useful and accurate reference value. At the same time, via a paired comparison method in AHP to weigh the factors considered when arriving to a decision, it is evident that decision-making processes are strongly affected by the background of the decision makers and their personal objectivity, both of which strongly influences the decisions they will arrive upon. Hence, before a decision is made, it is advised to discuss, consider and weigh the various factors as a group. This will help to avoid bad decisions resulting from incomplete information or personal inclinations. Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Processes, Market Value Method, Discounted Cash Flow Method, Gordon Model, Merger

參考文獻


16. Damodaran,Aswath.”Corporate Finance-Theory and Practice”John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1997
17. Securities Data Publishing Mergers & Acquisitions Monthly in New York March/April 1999
18. Agarwal and Ramaswami. ‘Choice of Foreign Market Entry Mode: Impact of Ownership, Location and Internalization Factors’, The Journal of International Business Studies, 23 (1), 1992 pp.1-27.
參考文獻
中文部份

被引用紀錄


林仲章(2017)。企業併購動機及決策分析-以半導體供應商R公司為例〔碩士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342%2fNTU201701330

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