公車捷運系統(BRT)之營運效益探討 — 以中壢桃園公車路線為例之系統模擬應用

Investigating the operational efficiency of Bus Rapid Transit System (BRT) — an example of Zhongli to Taoyuan bus route using system simulation approach

張菀庭(wan-ting Chang)

指導教授 ： 邱裕方

中原大學/電機資訊學院/工業與系統工程研究所/碩士(2020年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu202000713

摘要

各國空氣汙染日益嚴重，為了降低汙染對環境帶來的衝擊，各地逐漸出現共享的消費模式。政府規劃推動公車捷運系統，作為大眾運輸系統接駁運輸工具之一，減少排放氣體排放量以達節約能源，以落實低碳生活。本研究以公車捷運系統(Bus Rapid Transit System，BRT)作為改善桃園中壢1路公車營運效益的替代方案，利用Arena模擬系統呈現乘客上下車的乘車情況，最後用成本效益分析之相關模型，探討公車捷運系統的建設是否可以改善公車營運效益。
本研究數據模擬結果顯示，改善方案的乘客等待時間為平均等待時間為0.04小時、平均服務時間為0.02小時，透過成本建構模型分析總興建成本之差異值為734,560,000元，總資產成本差異之現值為935,686,640元，總效益成本差異值之現值為7,310,317,493元，最後差異比為4.3767。雖然差異比大於1，但重大經濟建設的效益評估年限大部分約為二十年至三十年期間，需透過敏感度分析，假設總建設成本之差異值±20%幅度進行變動，資產總成本差異值之現值與總效益差異值之現值為不變，結果顯示差異比皆大於1，表示本研究以桃園中壢1路公車路線更改為公車捷運系統營運模式即使經過二十年後還是符合重大建設的經濟效益，因此桃園中壢1路公車未來是可以考慮改善為公車捷運系統的營運方式。

關鍵字

公車捷運系統 ； 系統模擬 ； 成本效益分析 ； 敏感度分析

並列摘要

Air pollution in various countries is becoming more and more serious. In order to reduce the impact of pollution on the environment, shared consumption patterns have gradually emerged in various regions. The government plans to promote the bus rapid transit system as one of the means of transportation for the mass transit system to reduce emissions to save energy and realize a low-carbon life. This study uses the Bus Rapid Transit System (BRT) as an alternative to improve the operational efficiency of Taoyuan Zhongli No. 1 bus. The Arena simulation system is used to present passengers getting on and off the bus. Finally, the relevant model for cost-benefit analysis is used. , To explore whether the construction of the bus rapid transit system can improve bus operating efficiency.
The data simulation results of this research show that the average waiting time of passengers in the improvement plan is 0.04 hours and the average service time is 0.02 hours. The difference in total construction cost is 734,560,000 yuan, and the present value of the difference in total asset cost. It is 935,686,640 yuan, the present value of the total benefit cost difference value is 7,310,317,493 yuan, and the final difference ratio is 4.3767. Although the difference ratio is greater than 1, the benefit evaluation period of major economic construction is mostly about 20 to 30 years. Sensitivity analysis is required. It is assumed that the difference of the total construction cost is ±20%. The total cost of assets The present value of the difference value and the current value of the total benefit difference value remain unchanged. The results show that the difference is greater than 1, which means that this study changed the bus route of Taoyuan Zhongli 1 to the bus rapid transit system operation mode even after 20 years It is still in line with the economic benefits of major construction, so Taoyuan Zhongli No. 1 bus can be considered to be improved into the operation mode of the bus rapid transit system in the future.

並列關鍵字

bus rapid transit system (BRT) ； system simulation ； cost benefit analysis(CBA) ； sensitivity analysis

參考文獻

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