我國上櫃公司財務預測更新與投信法人買賣超之研究

The Study of Relationship Between Revisions on Financial Forecast of OTC Companies and Net Buy or Sell of the Investment Trust Investors in Taiwan

林月花(yueh-hua(Michelle) Lin)

指導教授 ： 胡為善

中原大學/商學院/會計研究所/碩士(2002年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200200014

摘要

近年來證券投資已成為我國國民理財活動中極為重要之一環，雖然我國股市的投資人中以散戶佔最多數，但法人機構卻設有專業分析師從事資料之蒐集，依其專業知識與經驗，分析及解釋所蒐集的資訊。再加上其與公司之互動關係，使得機構投資人的進出股票資訊常成為一般市場投資者的跟隨指標。
本研究以投信法人為研究對象，探討其投資策略與我國強制性財務預測正負向更新之關係，並藉以觀察解釋投信法人是否為知情投資人。本研究首先探討強制性財務預測正負向更新與投信法人買賣超之關係，其次探討投信法人對稅前盈餘更新幅度及每股稅前盈餘達成率不同時，其投資策略是否不同? 本研究之結論彙總如下：

(一) 強制性財務預測正向更新，不論是更新日之前或之後，均不會造成投信法人顯著買賣超的行為。
(二) 負向財務預測更新日之前，強制性公布會造成投信法人賣超的顯著差異。而在負向財務預測更新日之後，強制性公布會造成投信法人顯著買超行為。符合投信法人為知情投資人之推論。
(三) 無論強制性財務預測正向更新日之前或之後，投信法人對稅前盈餘不論更新幅度的大小，並無顯著的買賣超行為。
(四) 強制性財務預測負向更新日之前，投信法人對稅前盈餘更新幅度大者，並無顯著的賣超行為。
(五) 強制性財務預測負向更新日之後，投信法人對稅前盈餘更新幅度較大者，並無顯著的賣超行為。
(六) 強制性財務預測正向更新日之前或之後，投信法人對每股盈餘不論達成率高低，並無顯著的買賣超行為。
(七) 強制性財務預測負向更新日之前，投信法人對每股盈餘達成率低者，會有顯著之賣超行為。
(八) 強制性財務預測負向更新日之後，投信法人對每股盈餘達成率低者，並無顯著之賣超行為。

關鍵字

財務預測更新 ； 投信法人 ； 買賣超 ； 機構法人

並列摘要

Abstract

For the recent years, the security investment especially in stock market has become a nationwide’s essentially financial activity for people in Taiwan. In general, the market participants may be classified into two groups, Individual investors and Institutional investors. The institutional investors hire some specialized analysts to analyze and explain the related information they collected. With their professional knowledge and experiences, they usually provide more valuable conclusions than Individual investors do. As a result, the final decisions of institutional investors often become leading indices to Individual investors even they represent 90% of stock market participants in Taiwan.

In this study, it will propose the investment trust institutional investors as the objects to discuss the relationship between their investment strategies and OTC companies’ compulsory revisions, no matter positive or negative, of financial forecast required by authorities in Taiwan. By the way, it will also observe whether the institutional investors get the undisclosed information of a OTC company faster than others. In more details, there will discuss in first about the relationship between the above mentioned compulsory revisions of financial forecast and the net buy or sell status of the institutional investors in stock market. Then, there will find whether the Investment Trust investors change their strategies under different degrees of revision on earnings before income tax and achievement percentage of earnings per share before income tax.. There are some conclusions of this study listed below:

1. If the compulsory financial forecast was updated positively, it would not affect the investment trust investors to hold an obvious net buy status no matter in or after the updated date.
2. If the compulsory financial forecast was updated negatively, it would affect the investment trust investors to hold an obvious net sell status before the updated date. By the way, it would affect the investment trust investors to hold an obvious net buy status after the updated date if the compulsory financial forecast was updated negatively. These confirm the inference of the investment trust investors engaging in the inside information in advance
3. If the compulsory financial forecast was updated positively in earnings before income tax, the investment trust investors would remain unchanged in or after the updated date no matter how big the degree is..
4. Before the compulsory financial forecast was updated negatively, the investment trust investors would not respond to hold a net sell status no matter how big the degree of earnings before income tax adjusted downward.
5. After the compulsory financial forecast was updated negatively, the investment trust investors would not respond to hold a net sell status no matter how big the degree of earnings before income tax adjusted downward.
6. If the compulsory financial forecast was updated positively in earnings per share before income tax, the investment trust investors would remain unchanged in or after the updated date no matter how much the achievement percentage is.
7. Before the compulsory financial forecast was updated negatively , the investment trust investors would respond to hold a net sell status especially in those with lower achievement percentage of earnings per share before income tax.
8. After the compulsory financial forecast was updated negatively in earnings per share before income tax, the investment trust investors would not respond to hold a net sell status no matter how low the achievement percentage of earnings per share before income tax is.

並列關鍵字

Trust Investors ； Institutional investors ； Financial Forecast ； Net Buy or Sell

參考文獻

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