台灣地區機構投資人對上市公司風險認知 與財務報表資訊關聯之研究

The Association Between Institutional Investors’ Risk Perceptions and Financial Statement Information in Taiwan

謝美緞(Mei-Tuan Hsieh)

指導教授 ： 林維珩

中原大學/商學院/會計研究所/碩士(2002年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200200049

摘要

本研究之主要目的在於探討財務分析師風險認知與財務報表資訊之關聯性，一方面驗證年報所包含的資訊可以用來解釋財務分析師之風險認知；另一方面，驗證財務分析師之風險認知高，則其預期次年度盈餘成長會降低。所謂分析師認知風險，係指以問卷方式調查各個受測之分析師對市場風險的評估，再將所得之評估加以平均，即可得出分析師平均認知風險。
首先，參考相關之研究文獻以建立本研究之架構，選取摩根成分股共63家公司，作為研究樣本；所評估之風險等級由1（低風險）至9（高風險）。對「中華民國證券投資信託暨投資顧問商業同業公會」所收錄的38家會員名錄（民國89年十一月份）中的證券投資信託公司之基金經理人，做問卷調查，共計285位基金經理人；以及所收錄的201家會員名錄（民國89年十一月份）中的證券投資顧問公司之分析師，做問卷調查，共計201位分析師。因此，共計發出486份問卷，所獲得有效回函為100封，回函率約為21%。
運用相關分析與迴歸分析，實證結果支持假說，獲得以下之結論：
一、年報所包含的資訊可以用來解釋財務分析師之風險認知。
二、財務分析師之風險認知高，則其預期次年度盈餘成長會降低。

關鍵字

機構投資人 ； 系統風險 ； 認知風險 ； 會計風險

並列摘要

The present study aims to investigate the association between financial analysts’ risk perceptions and Financial Statement Information. It verifies that the Financial Statement Information explains financial analysts’ risk perceptions. And then, it verifies that analysts perceive higher risk in companies expected to exhibit a decline in earnings. The financial analysts’ risk perceptions were taken to be the mean of the response received.
The body of the present study was referred to related literatures. Recipients of the questionnaires were requested to assess the risk of each of the 63 companies on a scale of 1（low）to 9（high）,assuming that the stock was added to a diversified portfolio. In November 2000, Securities Investment Trust and Consulting Association of Republic of China including the members of fund managers in Securities Investment Trust Co., Ltd were 281 and of analysts in Investment Consulting Co., Ltd were 201. The total questionnaires were 486. Completed questionnaires were received within four weeks from 100 analysts. Respectively, representing response rate of 21 percent.
This research questions were investigated using correlation analysis and regression analysis. The results support the hypotheses. Analyses from a survey of risk perceptions among analysts reveal that：
1.Financial Statement Information explains financial analysts’ risk perceptions.
2.Higher financial analysts’ risk perceptions are found associated with lower expected earnings growth.

並列關鍵字

Institutional Investors ； accounting risk ； Perceptive Risk ； systematic risk

參考文獻

台灣經濟新報社（民國89年），”Smart 國內海外共同基金投資總覽”，電腦家庭文化事業股份有限公司（台北），初版一刷。

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陳佳昌(民國86年)，股票投資風險、債券平等與企業風險之整合模型，成功大學會計研究所碩士論文。

Gary John Previts, Robert J. Bricker, Thomas R. Robinson, and Stephen J. Young, (1994), ‵A content Analysis of Sell-Side Financial Analyst Company Reports′, Accounting Horizons, pp.55-70.

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