我國上市上櫃公司管理盈餘組成項目之研究

The Empirical Research of Managing Earnings Components by Listed and OTC Listed Companies in Taiwan

吳尚仁(Shang-Ren Wu (Alno Wu))

指導教授 ： 林維珩

中原大學/商學院/會計研究所/碩士(2002年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200200050

摘要

公司所發布之盈餘預測值與盈餘實際值在產生誤差下，公司管理當局為避免不必要之成本，是否會進而操控實際報導盈餘？由此產生本研究之動機。將取樣民國八十三年元月起至民國八十九年十二月底我國之上市（櫃）公司，且管理當局針對該年度有發布經會計師核閱之財務預測之公司共1659個樣本為研究對象。利用Degeorge, Patel, and Zeckhauser（1999）與Plummer and Mest (2001)所採之研究方法為基礎，以類似T檢定之方式，在盈餘誤差分配圖中檢定接近門檻二端公司之不連續情況是否顯著。並採用Modified Jones Model，配合Thomas and Zhang（2000）所提出未預期應計項目之概念，用以比較緊鄰門檻二側之公司，在未預期應計項目上是否有顯著的差異，做為評估假設之另一項依據。實證結果如下：

一、稅前盈餘報導門檻之檢定結果

研究結果發現稅前盈餘預測誤差剛好高於＋20%或剛好低於0%的公司，不會如本研究所預期地，將稅前盈餘預測誤差＋20%或0%視為盈餘報導門檻。然而在顯著水準下，稅前盈餘預測誤差剛好落於－20%以外的公司，會將稅前盈餘預測誤差－20%視為盈餘報導門檻，進而操縱盈餘已達成其盈餘報導目標。

二、管理當局傾向操縱之盈餘組成項目

結果顯示出稅前盈餘預測誤差剛好落於－20%以內的公司，如本研究所預期，在顯著水準下管理當局傾向利用操縱銷貨與營業外損益上升，進而使稅前盈餘預測預測誤差能符合「財務預測實施要點」第十八點所規範之更新標準；然而管理當局並不傾向操縱營業費用以達成其目標。而再將樣本區分為銷貨毛利率高和低二組時，發現銷貨毛利率較高的公司傾向操縱銷貨，但二組在營業費用與營業外損益預測誤差上相比較則無明顯之差異；而銷貨毛利率較低組傾向操縱處分投資損益以達成其盈餘報導目標。

關鍵字

財務預測 ； 盈餘組成項目 ； 盈餘管理

並列摘要

The financial forecast information is getting more important to public as the Taiwan Stock Market growing dramatically in recent years and authorities striving for building a complete forecast information system. Consequently, we’re interested in whether listed and OTC listed companies will struggle for meeting or beating the thresholds via managing earnings in order to evade unnecessary cost while they don’t achieve certain reporting objectives. Our study’s samples, covering 1659 firms from 1994 to 2000, consist of listed and OTC listed companies which had issued CPA-reviewed financial forecast reports. Then, we will test our hypotheses, being established according to prior researches and laws relative to this subject, in the same manner as Degeorge, Patel, and Zeckhauser（1999）and Plummer and Mest (2001). In addition, the Modified Jones Model will also be used to assist us in making conclusions. The results of our research are as follows：

1. Managing earnings to meet or beat the thresholds

There is no evidence that companies will manage earnings to meet or beat the reporting objectives when their earnings forecast errors are slightly more than ＋20% or less than zero. Expectedly, companies whose earnings forecast errors are slightly less than －20% will use earnings management to meet the threshold set up by SFC（Securities and Futures Commission, R.O.C.）.

2. Which Components are companies likely to use

After testing the hypotheses, the result apparently shows companies tend to use sales and other incomes to meet the threshold. No evidence appears that companies are likely to choose decreasing operating expense for meeting the threshold. Also, after dividing samples by operating income percentage, we find the high-percentage firms relatively are likely to use sales to managing earnings upward. And income from disposing investments is likely to be used by low-percentage firms.

並列關鍵字

Financial Forecast ； Earnings Components ； Earnings Management

參考文獻

1. 中華民國財團法人會計研究發展基金會財務會計準則委員會，財務會計準則公報第十六號：「財務預測編制要點」，民國七十八年十二月。

2. 中華民國財團法人會計研究發展基金會審計準則委員會，審計準則公報第十九號：「財務預測核閱要點」，民國七十九年十月。

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