裁決性應計項目的評價 －績效假說、投機假說與雜訊假說

The Pricing of Discretionary Accruals -Performance Measure Hypothesis、Opportunistic Accrual Management Hypothesis and Noise Hypothesis-

葉蓁蓁(Chen-Chen Yeh)

指導教授 ： 曹壽民

中原大學/商學院/會計研究所/碩士(2002年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200200590

摘要

摘要
本研究旨在探討裁決性應計項目在不同盈餘管理行為中所具有之屬性，包括：預測攸關性，序列相關性及評價攸關性。大致而言，文獻上有三個理論說明盈餘管理之動機，即績效假說、投機假說及雜訊假說（Guay,Kothari and Watts（1996）,Subramanyam（1996））。本文延伸Ohlson（1999）的理論模型，發展一個與裁決性應計項目特性有關之會計基礎評價模型。本模型可分為線性資訊模型及評價模型兩部分，透過對模型係數之測試，來檢視三種盈餘管理假說下，裁決性應計項目是否具有不同之評價。另外，本文亦一併檢測本文所設計之裁決性應計項目衡量模式是否優於Jones（1991）橫斷面估計模式，可降低裁決性應計項目之衡量誤差。實證結果顯示：（1）績效假說及投機假說公司之裁決性應計項目對於未來異常盈餘均具有增額的預測能力，惟在績效假說下，其預測係數為正，在投機假說下，則為負數，至於雜訊假說之下，裁決性應計項目並不具有預測攸關價值。（2）在績效假說中，裁決性應計項目呈現負序列相關，即具有迴轉的特性，其餘假說（投機假說及雜訊假說）之下，則未獲得證實。（3）除了雜訊假說之外，績效假說及投機假說公司之裁決性應計項目皆具有評價攸關價值。（4）此外，本文所設計之裁決性應計項目衡量模式確如預期優於Jones(1991)橫斷面模式，可降低衡量誤差的問題。

關鍵字

盈餘管理 ； 會計基礎評價模型 ； 績效假說 ； 投機假說 ； 裁決性應計項目 ； 雜訊假說

並列摘要

The purpose of this study is to explore the attributes of discretionary accruals (thereafter “DAs”) under different earnings management behaviors. The attributes includes forecast relevance, serial relation, and value relevance.

Prior research studied by Guay, Kothari, and Watts in 1996 had three hypotheses presented for earnings management behaviors known as performance measure hypothesis, opportunistic accrual management hypothesis, and noise hypothesis. In this study, we extended the Ohlson (1999) model by developing a new accounting-based valuation model concerning DAs based on linear information model and pricing model. By comparing the coefficients in each model, we tested whether the different attributes of DAs would exist under the three different earnings management hypotheses. Moreover, we also examined whether our model designed for the valuation of DAs would be superior to the model created by Jones (1991), and would result in a lower measurement error.

We find that DAs of the companies have incremental ability for predicting the future abnormal earning under both performance measure hypothesis and opportunistic accrual management hypothesis. The coefficient predicted is positive under performance measure hypothesis, while it is negative under opportunistic accrual management hypothesis. Regarding noise hypothesis in my model, DAs have not forecast relevance. Second, in performance measure hypothesis, DAs present a negative serial relationship which implicates that DAs would reverse afterwards. However, this attribute is not proved in the other two hypotheses. Third, DAs are value-relevant under both performance measure hypothesis and opportunistic accrual management hypothesis, but DAs are not value-relevant under noise hypothesis. Finally, consistent with prediction, our measurement model for valuating DAs is indeed superior to Jones’ model, and the measurement errors of our measurement model is less than that of Jones’ model.

並列關鍵字

Earnings management ； Opportunistic accrual management hypothesis ； Performance measure hypothesis ； Discretionary accruals. ； Noise hypothesis ； Accounting-based valuation model

參考文獻

溫政斌，民89，台灣上市公司暫時性盈餘屬性之研究，中原大學會計研究所碩士論文。

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