產業情境分析與策略發展關係之研究—以TFT-LCD產業為例

A Research on the Relationship between Scenario Analysis and Strategic Development of Industry- TFT-LCD Industry as an Example

陳建男(Chien-Nan Chen)

指導教授 ： 嚴奇峰

中原大學/商學院/企業管理研究所/碩士(2003年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200300582

摘要

本研究旨在對目前全球薄膜電晶體液晶顯示器（Thin Film Transistor-Liquid Crystal Display, TFT-LCD）產業現況進行了解，並試圖藉由情境分析法(Scenario Analysis)提供一個關於TFT-LCD產業未來發展之可能情境。為避免任何重要、極端情形被忽略，本研究從大量的產業次級資料以及與相關產業專家的深度面訪中，尋找關於產業發展的重要不確定性因素及其對產業可能的影響，並輔以建構產業未來發展的可能情境。
本研究發現，影響TFT-LCD產業發展的重要不確定性因素包括：1.世代技術發展的不確定性；2.LCD TV市場需求的不確定性；3.替代性技術產品的不確定性；4.經濟情勢與成長的不確定性。並依技術變化、需求變化以及產業環境(結構)變化三個不確定軸面，分別建立了市場成長趨緩、技術演進遲滯、自由競爭市場以及寡頭壟斷局面四種未來可能的產業情境。
在論文最後，本研究除了分別針對各個情境探討台灣產業所面臨的機會、威脅之外，並彙整、歸納相關受訪者之意見，經由情境分析法對我國業者提出具體可行之策略發展建議，包括：1.在產業價值鏈中尋找定位；2.籌組研發聯盟，開發技術平台；3.積極投入次世代技術發展，增強技術自主性；4.嘗試發展自有品牌。

關鍵字

薄膜電晶體液晶顯示器 ； 產業演化 ； 產業分析 ； 情境分析法

並列摘要

This research is for the purpose of underatanding the present whole world Thin Film Transistor-Liquid Crystal Display (TFT-LCD) industry, and will attempt to develop the possible situation about the future TFT-LCD industry by scenario analysis method. In order to avoid any being important, the extreme situation is neglected, this research visits from the massive industrial secondary material as well as with the industry expert's depth interview, seeks the important uncertainty factors of the industrial development, and its to the industrial possible influence, and auxiliary constructs the possible situation which the construction industry future will develop.
This research finds that the most important uncertainty factors of the TFT-LCD industry development includes: 1.the uncertainty of generation technology development; 2.the uncertainty of LCD TV market demand; 3.the uncertainty of substitute technical product; 4. the uncertainty of economical circumstance and growth. Carry on, according to the technical change, the demand change as well as the industrial environment (structure) changes three uncertainty axes, establish four kind of future possible industries scenario includes: 1.the growth of market is slow; 2.the evolution of technology comes to a standstill; 3.the prosperity market; 4.the oligopoly market.
In thesis final, this research except separately aims at each scenario discusses the opportunity, the threat which the Taiwan industry faces, this research collects.and concludes the opinions of the industrial experts. And proposes specifically the feasible strategy development suggestion by scenario analysis method, includes: 1. seeks the position in the industrial value chain; 2. organizes R&A alliance, and develop technology platform; 3. positively puts the next generation technology development, and enhance technology independency; 4. attempts development brand.reputation.

並列關鍵字

industrial evolution industrial analysis ； scenario analysis method ； Thin Film Transistor-Liquid Crystal Display (TFT-LCD)

參考文獻

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