兩岸金融合作對台灣金融業股價分析

中文摘要　　本研究係在探討兩岸金融合作(含MOU及ECFA簽署)後，兩岸金融業門戶大開，進而造成我國股市、金融類股，乃至銀行個股相關性的影響。然台灣為淺碟市場因而整體經濟環境及貨幣市場亦將造成相當程度的衝擊。故而有下列主題之研究： (1) 在兩岸金融合作前後，台灣、大陸及美國三地股市，與台灣金融類股股價指數之連動性變化。 (2) 在兩岸金融合作前後，大型金控及銀行在台灣金融市場，其競爭關聯性之變化。　　研究方法係藉由線性多元迴歸模型分析，就兩岸簽訂金融合作前、後不同期間為基礎，以台灣金融類股股價指數為應變數，而其它相關變數(含美國、大陸及台灣等之股價指數)為自變數。經過問題剖析界定、變數資料收集、迴歸模式選定、係數估計、檢核、分析與判斷等之程序，最終獲致之結論如下: (1)兩岸金融合作後，台灣金融類股價指數與台灣加權股價指數及大陸上海綜合指數相互之影響力皆增加，由此可證兩岸的經濟相關性、依存度亦持續提升中。 (2)大型金控於整體金融業之競爭力重要性，超越非金控之銀行。故如何加速強化資本及擴張業務是台灣金融業之首要任務。

關鍵字

兩岸金融合作；複迴歸模型；金融MOU ； ECFA ；股價分析；金融業

並列摘要

Abstract The propose of the study is to discuss policy impacts of MOU and ECFA upon Taiwan’s stock market. Both cross-strait financial markets and bank stocks open since cross-strait cooperation including MOU and ECFA were signed. Since Taiwan is a small market, this opening shall cause huge impact on the whole economic circumstances and money markets. So the following goals are expected to be produced: (1)Relationships among various stock price indices of Taiwan, China, America as well as Taiwan financial industry’s stocks are analyzed and compared before and after. (2)Competitions vary between large bank and middle-sized bank in Taiwan financial market. This study uses method of Multiple Linear Regression Model to analyze the data. Using Taiwan financial stock price index as the dependent variable and other variables including stock price indices of America, China and Taiwan exchange rates as the independent variables. Passing through the procedures of problem analysis, variable data collection, regression model selection finally, the conclusions are found as follows: (1)The mutual influential power of Taiwan financial industry’s stock price index, Taiwan average weight stock price index and China ShangHai general stock price index increase after the Cross-Strait cooperation agreement has been signed. Therefore the Cross-Strait economic relationship and dependence is rising up. (2)Impacts of large bank are stronger than general bank’s. How to speed up capital and operation scopes are the first priority for Taiwan financial industry.

並列關鍵字

Cross-Strait cooperation ； Multiple Linear Regression Model ； Memorandum of Understanding ； Financial Industry ； Stock price analysis ； Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement