影響來台觀光旅遊關鍵經濟變數之探討

The Research of Key Successful Economic Factors for Taiwan’s Tourism

李宜蒼(YI-CHANG LEE)

指導教授 ： 李正文

中原大學/商學院/國際經營與貿易研究所/碩士(2014年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201400772

摘要

近年來全球先進國家經濟體及新興國家經體都在全力發展觀光產業，探討國際觀光旅客對國內觀光旅遊的相關經濟因素影響已為重要的議題。如果單獨使用縱斷面(時間序列)資料或橫斷面變數估計，那些影響國際觀光旅遊，容易產生偏誤，因此，結合縱斷面與橫斷面的縱橫資料(Panel data)方法是比較有效的估計。

本文採用計量經濟模型之追蹤資料(Panel Data) 和GMM方法，選取總體經濟因素實質GDP、CPI、EX、SR、UR及犯罪率探討對來台觀光旅客人數之影響。研究範圍由2002年到2013年，研究對象為來自亞洲及美洲共10個國家的來台觀光旅客。

研究結果顯示，失業率、實質GDP、物價與犯罪率為顯著的負向關系；匯率則為顯著的正向關係；股價報酬率則呈覝不顯著關係但為負向；前一期來台觀光遊客成長率亦呈現不顯著但為正向，影響原因可能是來台觀光人數成長對國內就業市場、經濟成長、物價與社會治安問題有關，表示觀光旅遊成長可以增加就業人力，另在物價下跌與社會治安問題減少，可以提升來台遊客成長，但對經濟成長幫助有限，可能觀光旅遊產業增加的人力無法應付國內產業外移後資遣的人力，顯示政府對觀光經濟轉型的調整，應積極規劃方針以引導企業提升在觀光產業的投資及發展，由其觀光旅遊是政府近年推動六大新興產業之一，表示的台灣觀光旅遊產業成長空間很大，而此本議題預測結論或可提供政府部門參考執行修正作為的政策依據。

關鍵字

追蹤資料分析 ； 總體經濟因素 ； 動態追蹤資料模型 ； 來台觀光旅客人數

並列摘要

In recent years, almost all the economies in the world, whether advanced countries or newly arising countries, are devoting their efforts in developing tourist industries, therefore the effects of international tourists on economic factors of domestic tourism and travelling are becoming vital issues. If we apply only longitudinal (time serial) data or cross-sectional variables estimates only, it is quite likely to generate bias, it is therefore the panel data method that combines longitudinal and cross-sectional information is accepted as more effective estimate.

In this paper, we adopted the Panel Data and GMM method of econometric model and elected macroeconomic factors, such as Real GDP, CPI, EX, SR, UR and crime rate to study the impact on number of visitors came to Taiwan. The scope of the study ranged from 2002 to 2013 and the subject visitors came from 10 countries from Asia and America.

Results of our study showed unemployment rate, Real GDP, CPI and Crime Rate are significant negative relation; exchange rate is significant positive relation, stock return rate is in negative relation but less than significant. The growth rate of visitors of last period is also insignificant but positive. The causes of the impact are probably the effect of growth rate of visitors on domestic employment market, economic growth, CPI and social securities issues. It indicates that the growth in tourist industry can increase employment. The drop in CPI and decrease of social securities issues can encourage the growth of number of visitors, but its effect on economic growth is rather limited. It is possible that the increased employment due to the expansion in tourist industry cannot match with the off-hired manpower due to relocation of industries. It indicates that the endeavor of the government in transforming and adjusting of tourist economies shall lead the industries in increase investment of tourism industry and development; particularly tourism is one of the 6 major new rising industries, that there is still ample space for growth of this industry. The forecast conclusion of this issue may be provided for reference in decision making and in correction of policies of government agencies.

並列關鍵字

dynamic panel GMM model ； macroeconomic factors ； Panel Data model ； the number of foreign tourists

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