亞洲製造業國際分工地位之變化分析

The Changing Role of Asian Manufacturing Industry in the International Production Fragmentation

劉峰瑋(Feng-Wei Liu)

指導教授 ： 林師模 ； 林晉勗

中原大學/商學院/國際經營與貿易研究所/碩士(2014年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201400885

摘要

隨著資訊科技的發達，以及貿易自由化的持續進行，企業在面對全球化的競爭下，為爭取具競爭力之生產要素及降低成本，生產體系逐漸走向全球化，國際分工體系因而形成。近年來，亞洲與世界其他地區簽署自由貿易協議的趨勢方興未艾，台灣卻被孤立於這股浪潮之外，這對經濟發展策略一向以出口導向為主之台灣勢必造成衝擊。有鑑於此，如何洞悉自身之弱點，並擬定良好的因應策略，對於鞏固台灣未來之國際生產分工地位是十分重要的。本研究採用多國產業關聯架構下之世界投入產出表，估算了亞洲主要國家製造業部門於1995年至2011年的國際生產分工指數，藉此分析台灣在不同互動區域考量下，所應重視發展之產業，同時也利用panel data模型，估計並分析影響製造業專業分工程度的主要因素，以提供擬定未來產業發展策略之重要參考資訊。
本研究分析結果顯示，從國際生產分工角度來看，目前台灣製造業國際分工程度仍較中日韓三國為高，不過，由計量實證估計的結果，我們也發現對已開發國家而言，通常產業附加價值率的上升會伴隨著國際生產分工程度的下降，也就是說，當經濟發展逐漸成熟，產業生產逐漸以生產及出口最終消費產品為主的時候，附加價值率反而會提升。有鑑於此，我國的產業應該逐漸調整，朝技術創新、升級及高附加價值的方向發展，而不是一直侷限於擔任其他已開發國家國際生產分工的一份子而沾沾自喜。

關鍵字

多區域投入產出分析 ； 國際產業分工 ； 世界投入產出表 ； 亞洲

並列摘要

With the advancement of information technology and trade liberalization, the production system of enterprises has gradually globalized to strive for competitive production factors and to reduce costs under global competition, and thus the system of international production fragmentation is formed. In recent years, the trend in the signature of Free Trade Agreement in Asia and other regions has been in the ascendant. However, Taiwan is isolated from this tidal wave and this certainly will have an impact on Taiwan whose economic development strategy has always been primarily export-oriented. In the light of this, it is very important for Taiwan to have an insight into its own weakness and to plan a good coping strategy to consolidate its future position in the international production fragmentation.
By adopting the World Input-output Table under the framework of multinational industrial relevance, this study has estimated the international production fragmentation index in the manufacturing industries of the major Asian countries from 1995 to 2011, and thereby analyzed the industries that Taiwan shall value and develop in consideration of different regions. By using the panel data model, the study has also estimated and analyzed the main factors that affect the degree of specialization in the manufacturing industry, in order to provide important reference information for planning the industrial development strategies in the future.
The analysis results of this study show that there is certain difference between the industries that Taiwan should value and develop in consideration of different regions. Accordingly, policymakers may consider different industrial development strategies when managing the cooperation relationship of economy and trade in different regions. Additionally, according to the econometric estimation results in the manufacturing industry, the import of intermediate goods, FDI and the growth of average income per capita will improve the degree of international production fragmentation; and the export of intermediate goods and the growth of value added will cause the decline of international production fragmentation. However, we can take the opportunity of international production fragmentation to improve technology so that we can replace the export of final goods in other countries and increase the value added of the industry.

並列關鍵字

Asia ； International production fragmentation ； Multi-regional input-output analysis ； World Input-output Table

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